North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Prediction 02/25/20

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The North Carolina Tar Heels (10-17, 3-13 ACC) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-10, 8-8 ACC) clash at Dean E. Smith Center. The Tar Heels are 2.5-point favorites and look to snap their seven-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 145.5 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020.

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds

Both teams did not cover as underdogs in their last matchup. The Tar Heels (10.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the 11th-ranked Louisville Cardinals, 72-55, while the Wolfpack (1.5-point underdogs) fell to the eighth-ranked Florida State Seminoles, 67-61. Both games finished 19 points under their projected point totals (146 for the North Carolina game and 147 for the North Carolina State game).

North Carolina State held Florida State to an effective field goal percentage of 0.454 (below their season average of 0.523) while North Carolina did a great job of making free throws (7-8; 87.5 percent). North Carolina’s Cole Anthony had a good outing, contributing 18 points and seven rebounds. Devon Daniels was a key piece for North Carolina State with 18 points and nine rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Garrison Brooks led the Tar Heels to a 75-65 victory. He registered a double-double with 25 points and 11 rebounds. North Carolina covered as a 7-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 140 points, which was under the projected point total of 149. One of North Carolina’s largest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They had 25 free throw attempts, while North Carolina State had just seven.

Of the Wolfpack’s 27 games, 17 have finished under the O/U total. North Carolina State comes into the game with records of 17-10 straight up (SU) and 13-13-1 against the spread (ATS).

Games including the Tar Heels also have a tendency to finish under the total (55.6 percent). Moreover, North Carolina is 10-17 SU and 10-17 ATS.

The Wolfpack’s Daniels has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 18 points,6.2 rebounds,1.6 steals per game. Meanwhile, Anthony has averaged 19 points,6.2 rebounds,4.4 assists during that same time frame for the Tar Heels.

The offensive glass should be a major advantage for North Carolina in this battle. The Tar Heels rank 16th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.1 percent), while North Carolina State ranks 279th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.9 percent). The Wolfpack should have an edge in terms of ball protection. They rank 46th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.9 percent), while the Tar Heels force the 22nd-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.4 percent).

North Carolina State vs. North Carolina Free Pick

Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – North Carolina, ATS Winner – North Carolina, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • North Carolina ranks second in rebounds per game (42.6) while North Carolina State ranks 225th in rebounds allowed per game (37.1).
  • The Wolfpack average 4.5 blocks per game, which ranks 36th in the country. The Tar Heels rank 160th in blocks allowed per game (4.0).
  • North Carolina State averages 7.4 steals per game, which ranks 67th in the NCAA. North Carolina ranks 173rd in steals allowed per game (7.0).
  • The Wolfpack rank 68th in three pointers allowed per game (19.6) while the Tar Heels rank 268th (25.1).
  • North Carolina State ranks 42nd in assists allowed per game (10.8) while North Carolina ranks 177th (13.4).
  • North Carolina State is 6-5 ATS on the road, while North Carolina is 3-10 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 7 of the Tar Heels’ 13 home games, while 6 of the Wolfpack’s 11 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, North Carolina State and North Carolina have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Wolfpack are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Tar Heels are 2-3.
  • The Wolfpack’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.8, up from 5.3 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Tar Heels have scored an average of 69.2 points per game (1.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 77.0 points per game (7.9 above their season average).