North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels – 11/24/2018 Betting Pick

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The North Carolina State Wolfpack (-6) and North Carolina Tar Heels are set to square off on the grass at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Kickoff for this ACC matchup is set for 12:20 p.m. ET and CHSS is in line to broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

In this Saturday Atlantic Coast game, North Carolina State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 6 points. The Wolfpack are also receiving -240 moneyline odds while the Tar Heels are +190. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 65 points. If North Carolina State falls behind early, it’ll likely result in a worthwhile live betting opportunity.

Early action has been slanting to the Heels, as the opening line was 7. The game’s O/U hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 65.

The Wolfpack are 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 11.8 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-5.

The Tar Heels have lost 14.1 units this season. The team is 4-5-1 ATS and the over has hit in seven of its games.

The Wolfpack are 7-3 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against conference opponents. The Tar Heels are 2-8 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.

When these two teams met last year, North Carolina State earned the win 33-21.

The Wolfpack are trying to keep things going after a solid 52-10 victory over Louisville last week. the Wolfpack completed 31-of-42 passes for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Ryan Finley went 26-for-36 for 316 yards and four touchdowns while Matthew McKay completed five-of-six for 38 yards. Ricky Person (only 44 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and Reggie Gallaspy (73 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) led the running attack while Emeka Emezie (seven receptions, 72 yards, one TD) and Kelvin Harmon (seven catches, 100 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.

North Carolina enters this one having just earned a 49-26 win over Western Carolina. The defense allowed the Catamounts to pass for 300 yards while rushing for 133 yards and two scores. Donnavan Spencer had a good outing in the loss for Western Carolina, accounting for 106 yards and a score on three catches. For North Carolina, Nathan Elliott completed 18-of-24 passes for 308 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Javonte Williams (93 yards on 17 rush attempts, three TDs) and Jordon Brown (79 yards on 13 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Anthony Ratliff-Williams (four receptions, 84 yards) and Brown (three catches, 30 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

When glancing at offensive play-calling, each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. North Carolina State’s run the ball on 48.0 percent of its offensive possessions while North Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 49.5. The Wolfpack have produced 128.4 rush yards per game (including 137.3 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 18 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Heels are putting up 197.0 rush yards per game (192.7 in conference) and have 17 total rushing TDs.

The Pack offense has logged 331.1 yards/contest through the air overall (314.1 per game against conference opposition) and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Heels have recorded 246.4 pass yards per outing (248 against ACC competition) and have 13 total pass scores.

North Carolina State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 112.5 yards and pass for 290.5 yards per game. The North Carolina D has allowed 231.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 220.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Heels are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.31 to opposing QBs, while the Wolfpack have allowed a 7.04 ANY/A.

Offensively, Finley is already up to 2,806 passing yards this season. He’s completed 68 percent of his 328 attempts with 20 passing scores and only six interceptions. He’s got a pristine 8.71 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.11 over the last two games.

Look for Finley to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Kelvin Harmon (433 receiving yards and six touchdowns), Jakobi Meyers (637 yards, three TDs) and Emeka Emezie (433 yards, four TDs) have all been heavily involved recently.

On the other sideline, Nathan Elliott has completed 174-of-284 passes for 1,948 yards, 10 TDs and nine INTs. Elliott’s ANY/A sits at 5.92 for the season and 7.68 across his past two outings.

Michael Carter (447 rushing yards, one rush TD, 98 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), Anthony Ratliff-Williams (559 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Dazz Newsome (10 rush yards, 349 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have each played big roles lately. The trio has combined to account for 542 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last two games.

North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels NCAA Pick

SU Winner: North Carolina State, ATS Winner: North Carolina State, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The North Carolina offense has lost nine fumbles this season while North Carolina State has lost five.
  • The North Carolina State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 32 times this season. North Carolina has recorded 30 sacks.
  • North Carolina State, as a team, has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.
  • North Carolina has averaged 6.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 7.0 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matchups, North Carolina is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for North Carolina State’s last game going into it was 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 52-10 victory over Louisville.
  • In its last three matchups, North Carolina State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for North Carolina’s previous game was set at 81.5. The under cashed in the 49-26 victory over Western Carolina.