The New York Mets will be facing off against their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The game gets underway 4:10 p.m. ET and Pix11 will televise the matchup.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Odds
The Marlins are 43-39 against the spread (ATS), but just 33-50 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 1.3 units for moneyline bettors and 4.8 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Mets are 32-47 SU and have gone 32-45 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 16.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 18.9 units ATS. New York has covered the spread just once in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.
Miami games have a 42-39-1 over/under record thus far in 2018. New York has been a decent under bet with a total record of 33-41-3.
Jacob deGrom will get the nod for the visiting Mets. The right-handed deGrom is 5-3 with a 1.69 ERA and 126 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 2.77 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins are sending Pablo Lopez to the mound. This game represents the first MLB start of the season for Lopez.
New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.32 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.81, along with a WHIP of 1.28 and a K-per-9 of 8.68.
The Mets offense has slashed .232/.313/.383 on its way to 3.9 runs scored per game this season, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the teams last five outings (1-4 SU).
New York’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario, who have combined to swat 17 home runs. Cabrera is slashing .283/.325/.477 with 13 home runs, 44 RBIs and 36 runs scored, while Rosario is hitting .244 with four homers, 21 RBIs and 29 runs scored.
For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has yielded 5.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have an ERA of 4.75, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 4.80 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. In 23 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 3.98 and the bullpens ERA is 6.81.
The Miami hitters have produced 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over their last five. The teams hit .262/.326/.375 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Marlins hitters have been led by third baseman Brian Anderson and second baseman Starlin Castro. Anderson is hitting .292/.369/.409 with four home runs, 38 RBIs and 45 runs scored, and Castro’s line is .276/.324/.388 with five homers, 31 RBIs and 49 runs.
The Marlins have lost 3.7 units and are 27-32 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 30 of those games, compared to 28 that’ve hit the under against righties.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- New York has tallied 15 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Miami has nine XBH over its last five.
- The Mets have dropped nine of their last 10 games SU.
- Miami has recorded 23.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.8 over its last five.
- The Mets have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
