New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Free Pick

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The Atlanta Braves are playing host to their division rival New York Mets at SunTrust Park. The action will begin at 7:35 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to SportsNet New York.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Odds

The Mets have gone 26-25 SU this year and are 23-26 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.0 units for moneyline bettors and 3.0 units ATS. New York is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 31-22 SU and 30-21 ATS. They’ve gained 12.8 units for moneyline bettors and 6.7 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Atlanta games have a 24-24-3 over/under record so far in 2018. The Mets have an over/under record of 22-26-1.

The southpaw Steven Matz is the probable starter for the visiting Mets. Matz is 2-3 with a 3.80 ERA and 39 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Braves this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 1.29 ERA and two strikeouts over seven innings).

The Braves will send righty Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 1.29 ERA) to the mound. Sanchez has 14 strikeouts and six walks to his name, as well as a 1.21 WHIP. Sanchez did not record a start against the Mets in 2017.

Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.54, a WHIP of 1.36 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.8. The bullpen has a 3.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 33 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.12 and the bullpens ERA is 2.89.

Atlanta’s hitters have produced 5.1 runs per contest, including 5.4 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The teams hit .274/.352/.446 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Outfielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the Braves batters this year. Markakis is hitting .341/.406/.512 with seven home runs, 37 RBIs and 33 runs scored, and Freeman is hitting .333 with nine homers, 40 RBIs, 34 runs and five steals.

Freeman appeared to take a step back when facing lefties at home last season, slashing .222/.275/.397 over 69 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .307/.403/.586).

In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.21 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.78 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.17, along with a K-per-9 of 9.09.

Mets hitters have slashed .242/.321/.389 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game this season, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the teams last five outings (1-4 SU).

New York’s offense has been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is hitting .313/.352/.523 with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Rosario (.253/.282/.370) has produced three homers, 18 RBIs and 19 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 1.9 units and are 16-20 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 16 of those games, as opposed to 19 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 6.2 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in nine of those games, compared to six that’ve cashed the under.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Mets have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • Atlanta has recorded 22.9 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.0 over its last five.