New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

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The New York Mets are set to square off against their division rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET and Pix11 will be televising the action.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (+100) is coming into this one as the underdog against New York (-110) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +100 for the under and -120 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at Mets -1.5 runs (+135) and Phillies +1.5 runs (-155).

The Mets are 52-69 SU and are 55-64 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 18.1 units for moneyline bettors and 15.2 units ATS. New York is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 68-54 SU and 60-61 ATS. They’ve gained 12.1 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 9.0 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Philadelphia games have had an over/under record of 52-64-5 in 2018. New York has also been a decent under bet with a total record of 53-60-6.

The right-handed Jacob deGrom is the probable starter for the visiting Mets. deGrom is 7-7 with a 1.81 ERA and 195 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with nine strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).

The Phillies are handing the ball to righty Jake Arrieta (9-7, 3.33 ERA), who has 95 strikeouts and 42 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.23 WHIP. Arrieta is 0-0 with five strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in one start against New York this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 4.2 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The team’s starters have a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 46 games against divisional opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.50 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.58.

The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.2 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .272/.317/.467 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have paced the Phillies’ hitters this year. Herrera is slashing .269/.323/.445 with 19 home runs, 62 RBIs and 54 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line is .260/.369/.367 with 10 homers, 39 RBIs, 77 runs and 16 stolen bases.

In the other dugout, New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 4.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.96 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.83, along with a WHIP of 1.27.

The Mets offense has slashed .235/.317/.389 on its way to 4.2 runs scored per game this year, including 4.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 10.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario continue to lead New York’s hitters. Cabrera is hitting .277/.329/.488 with 18 home runs, 58 RBIs and 48 runs scored. Rosario is slashing .242/.286/.370 with six homers, 37 RBIs, 53 runs and 14 stolen bases.

The Mets have lost 13.2 units and are 41-48 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 40 of those games, compared to 44 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 9.8 units and are 46-47 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 39 of those games, compared to 50 that’ve gone under.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has cashed in four of New York’s last seven games.
  • New York has recorded 30.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 36.6 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 10 over their last 10.