New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

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The New York Mets will square off against their divisional rival Philadelphia Phillies at BB&T Ballpark. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN and the game gets underway 7:08 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Oddsmakers have listed New York (+170) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-180). Gamblers can bet on the game’s total with odds posted at -120 for over 9 runs and even money (+100) for under 9. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -130 for the Mets +1.5 runs and +110 for the Phillies -1.5.

The Phillies are 68-55 straight up (SU) and 61-61 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 13.1 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 7.8 units (ATS). The Mets have gone 53-69 SU this year and are 55-65 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 19.1 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 16.6 units ATS.

Phillies games have had an over/under record of 52-65-5 in 2018. New York has also been a decent under bet with a total record of 53-61-6.

Jason Vargas will get the start for the visiting Mets. The southpaw Vargas (2-8, 8.10 ERA) has recorded 44 strikeouts in 53.1 innings so far. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Phillies are sending righty Nick Pivetta (7-9, 4.37 ERA) to the hill. Pivetta has 153 strikeouts and 34 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.25 WHIP. Pivetta made four starts against the Mets in 2017, putting together a 2-1 record with a 4.98 ERA and 20 strikeouts.

New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.96 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.83, along with a K/9 of 8.14.

The Mets offense has slashed .235/.316/.389 on its way to 4.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 10.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

New York’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is slashing .277/.329/.488 with 18 home runs, 58 RBIs and 48 runs scored, while Rosario (.242/.286/.369) is up to six homers, 37 RBIs, 54 runs and 14 stolen bases.

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.2 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 3.71, a WHIP of 1.21 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.8. The bullpen has a 3.93 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 47 games against divisional opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.45 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.61.

The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.2 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .297/.335/.483 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies’ hitters this year. Herrera is hitting .268/.321/.442 with 19 home runs, 62 RBIs and 54 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line sits at .260/.368/.366 with 10 homers, 39 RBIs, 77 runs and 16 stolen bases.

The Mets have lost 14.2 units and are 41-49 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 40 of those games, compared to 45 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.3 units and are 14-14 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 13 of those games, compared to 14 that’ve cashed the under.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in only two of New York’s last seven games.
  • The New York defense has allowed five errors over the last 10 games, compared to 14 errors for Philadelphia over its last 10.
  • The Mets have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit nine over their last 10.