Jeff McNeil and the New York Mets will head south to face off against their divisional foe Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. SportsNet New York will broadcast the matchup and the game gets underway at 7:20 p.m. ET.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
New York (+140) is the underdog to Atlanta (-150) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at 9.5 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Mets +1.5 (-155) and Braves -1.5 (+135).
The Mets are 34-37 SU and are 33-37 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 9.8 units for moneyline gamblers and 7.5 units ATS. New York is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 42-30 SU and 34-37 ATS. The team has gained 6.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 0.6 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has cashed in all seven of them.
Atlanta games have an over/under record of 40-26-5 so far in 2019. New York has also been a decent over bet with a total record of 38-26-6.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler is getting the nod for the visiting Mets. Wheeler (5-4, 4.87 ERA) has recorded 99 strikeouts in 88.2 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA against Atlanta this year.
The Braves are putting the ball in the right hand of Mike Soroka (7-1, 1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), who has 60 strikeouts and 18 walks. Soroka hasn’t faced the Mets yet this year, but he made two starts against them in 2018, putting together a spotless 2-0 record with a 0.73 ERA and nine strikeouts.
New York’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.23 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.25 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.25, along with a K-per-9 of 9.30.
Mets hitters have slashed .250/.325/.423 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
New York’s offense has been led by left fielder Jeff McNeil and first baseman Pete Alonso. McNeil is hitting .333/.404/.457 with three home runs, 20 RBIs and 26 runs scored. Alonso (.263/.347/.604) has produced 23 homers, 53 RBIs and 43 runs scored.
For the home team, Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.8 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 4.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.12 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 21 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.50 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.77.
Atlanta’s hitters have put up 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.5 per game against divisional foes and 8.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .347/.426/.600 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
The Braves’ offense has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr.. Freeman is hitting .311/.401/.593 with 19 home runs, 51 RBIs and 53 runs scored, and Acuna Jr.’s line sits at .296/.375/.507 with 16 homers, 47 RBIs, 49 runs and nine stolen bases.
The Mets have lost 8.0 units and are 24-30 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 29 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 1.5 units and are 26-29 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 28 of those games, as opposed to 23 which went under the total.
Mets vs. Braves MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- New York has recorded 15 extra-base hits over its last five games. Atlanta has 27 XBH over its last five.
- The Braves have won nine of their last 10 games SU.
- Atlanta has recorded 31 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 35 over its last five.
- The Mets have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 22 over their last 10.
- The Mets have a team OPS of .748 this season and an OPS of .727 against right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS stands at .802 overall and .791 against righties.
