New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

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The New York Mets will head west to square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Fox Sports Arizona will televise this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 9:40 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Vegas is listing Arizona (-135) as the favorite over New York (+125). Bettors can wager on the games total with odds sitting at -110 for over 9 runs and -110 for under 9. The games runline odds stand at -170 for taking the Mets +1.5 runs and +150 for the Diamondbacks -1.5.

The Diamondbacks are 37-30 straight up (SU) and 35-31 against the spread (ATS). The teams gained 9.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.3 units (ATS). The Mets are 28-36 SU and have gone 28-34 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 10.1 units for moneyline bettors and 7.5 units ATS.

Arizona games have an over/under record of 32-32-2 so far in 2018. The Mets have been a decent under bet with a total record of 26-35-1.

Steven Matz will get the nod for New York. The left-handed Matz is 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 54 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 9.00 ERA against Arizona this year.

The Diamondbacks are putting the ball in the right hand of Matt Koch (4-3, 4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), who’s got 33 strikeouts and 14 walks. Koch hasn’t faced the Mets yet this year and did not record any MLB pitching stats in 2017.

New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.46 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.53, along with a WHIP of 1.27 and a K/9 of 8.94.

The Mets offense has slashed .226/.306/.369 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 1.4 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 1.6 per game over the teams last five outings (1-4 SU).

New York’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is slashing .277/.317/.488 with 11 home runs, 36 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Rosario (.237/.267/.343) is up to three homers, 18 RBIs and 23 runs scored.

For the home team, Arizona’s pitching staff has yielded 3.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.12, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.50, a WHIP of 1.10 and a K/9 of 7.9.

The Arizona hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 7.1 per game over its last 10 games and 9.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .288/.391/.492 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Outfielder David Peralta and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt have led the Diamondbacks offense this year. Peralta is hitting .274/.335/.485 with 12 home runs, 34 RBIs and 30 runs scored, while Goldschmidt’s line is .258/.369/.500 with 12 homers, 31 RBIs and 45 runs.

The Mets have lost 5.8 units and are 20-25 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 19 of those games, compared to 25 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 10.2 units and are 14-10 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 12 of those games, as opposed to 10 which went under the total.

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in five of Arizona’s last seven games.
  • The Mets have dropped 10 of their last 11 games SU.
  • New York has posted 10.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 9.6 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit six home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.