The Milwaukee Bucks (2-0) will be 11-point favorites at home in Fiserv Forum when they meet the New York Knicks (1-2). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, October 22, 2018.
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Odds
In their last matchup, the Bucks (3.5-point favorites) covered in a 118-101 victory over the Indiana Pacers. The Knicks fell to the Boston Celtics, 103-101, but did cover as 9.5-point underdogs. The Milwaukee game went 2 points over the projected point total of 217, while the New York game finished 6.5 points under the projected point total of 210.5.
Milwaukee played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.6 and an effective field goal percentage of 0.565. For those same stats, Indiana recorded marks of 18.8 and 0.471, respectively. New York, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.483 vs. 0.457). Milwaukee was lifted by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who put up 26 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. Meanwhile, Enes Kanter was a key piece for New York with 17 points and 15 rebounds.
The aggressive Milwaukee offense could be getting to the free throw line a lot in this matchup. Since the 2017-18 season, the Bucks rank fifth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.216, while New York ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.210). Ball protection could be troublesome for the Knicks. They rank 21st at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 14.1 percent), while the Bucks have forced the third-most turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.7 percent).
Since last season, the Knicks have had records of 30-55 straight up (SU) and 45-40 against the spread (ATS). New York games have had a slight tendency to finish under the O/U total since last season (52.9 percent).
On the other hand, the Bucks, have records of 46-38 SU and 40-50 ATS since last season. Games including Milwaukee have gone over the O/U total 52.2 percent of the time over that same stretch.
The Bucks dominated this series last year, winning all four games. In the most recent contest, Milwaukee won 115-102. Milwaukee’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over New York. The Bucks had a rate of 0.161, while the Knicks posted a mark of 0.116.
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Knicks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
- The Bucks average 5.5 blocks per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Knicks rank 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
- Milwaukee ranks third in steals per game (8.6) while New York ranks 27th (6.8).
- The Bucks rank third in points off turnovers per game (18.0) while the Knicks rank 24th (15.4).
- New York ranks 13th in rebounds per game (44.0) while Milwaukee ranks last (40.0).
- Milwaukee averages 23.2 assists per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. New York ranks 21st in assists allowed per game (23.8).
- The Knicks rank seventh in second chance points per game (13.3) while the Bucks rank last (10.3).
- The Knicks rank ninth in points in the paint per game (46.6) while the Bucks rank 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.0).
- Neither of these teams shoot many threes. Milwaukee is 25th in the league with 25.1 three pointers per game while New York is 29th with 23.6 threes per game.
- Milwaukee ranks sixth in fast break points per game (14.6) while New York ranks 29th (8.7).
- When holding opponents below 100 points, Milwaukee is 19-6 and New York is 15-4.
- When scoring above 100 points, the Knicks are 29-32 and the Bucks are 42-22.
