New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Prediction 11/21/19

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The Phoenix Suns (7-6) will be 6-point favorites at home in Talking Stick Resort Arena when they challenge the New Orleans Pelicans (5-9). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 233 points and it gets underway at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 21, 2019.

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

In the Pelicans’ last outing, they defeated the Portland Trail Blazers, 115-104, comfortably covering as 3-point favorites. The Suns, on the other hand, were topped by the Sacramento Kings, 120-116, and were unable to cover as 3-point underdogs. The New Orleans game finished 12.5 points under the projected point total of 231.5, while the Phoenix game went 16.5 points over the projected point total of 219.5.

New Orleans played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.215 (above their season average of 0.167) and a turnover percentage of 11.2 (better than their season average of 14.3). Portland was 0.087 and 14.8, respectively, for those same stats. Phoenix, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (8.8 vs. 16.7). Devin Booker led the way for Phoenix, putting up 30 points, eight assists and five rebounds. Jrue Holiday fueled New Orleans with 22 points, 10 assists and five rebounds.

This was a highly competitive series last year. Each won two of the four games played against each other last season. The Suns won the last game 133-126. Phoenix had a much better turnover percentage (5.8 vs. 11.7). New Orleans, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (31.3 vs. 25.5). This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year.

Pelicans games have no tendency in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. New Orleans holds records of 5-9 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS).

A little over half of Suns games have finished over the total. Further, Phoenix owns records of 7-6 SU and 9-4 ATS.

Looking at effective field goal percentage, Phoenix figures to have a significant edge. The sharp-shooting Suns offense ranks fifth in the NBA in that metric at 0.542, while the porous New Orleans defense is ranked 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.541). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the Pelicans’ offense, which ranks 25th in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.6 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Suns, which forces the third-most turnovers in the league (16.5 percent).

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pelicans rank 14th in rebounds per game (45.9) while the Suns rank 25th (42.2).
  • Phoenix ranks second in points off turnovers per game (21.7) while New Orleans ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (21.1).
  • The Suns rank second in assists per game (27.9) while the Pelicans rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (25.1).
  • New Orleans ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Phoenix ranks 25th (10.5).
  • New Orleans ranks fifth in steals per game (8.9) while Phoenix ranks 19th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
  • The Suns rank eighth in points in the paint per game (48.8) while the Pelicans rank 29th in points allowed in the paint per game (53.0).
  • The Suns rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (30.3) while the Pelicans rank 20th (34.6).
  • New Orleans ranks 18th in blocks per game (4.8) while Phoenix ranks 26th (4.1).
  • Phoenix averages 15.6 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. New Orleans ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (18.8).
  • Phoenix is 1-2 when they allow below 100 points.
  • The Pelicans are 5-8 when they reach the century mark, while the Suns are 7-4.
  • Phoenix is 6-3 ATS at home, while New Orleans is 2-4 ATS on the road.
  • The Pelicans have 3 overs and 3 unders in 6 road games.
  • The Suns have 6 overs and 3 unders in 9 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Pelicans are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, New Orleans has 4 unders and 1 over, while Phoenix has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Pelicans have outscored opponents by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. For the season, New Orleans has lost by an average of 3.2 points.
  • During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 116.4 points per game (1.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.2 points per game (2.8 above their season average).