The Miami Heat (8-3) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they meet the New Orleans Pelicans (3-8). The game will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 16, 2019.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds
Both teams covered in their last matchup. The Heat (4.5-point favorites) defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 108-97, while the Pelicans (4-point underdog) beat the Los Angeles Clippers 132-127. The Miami game went 9.5 points under the projected point total of 214.5, while the New Orleans game finished 25.5 points over the projected point total of 233.5.
The Pelicans, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.4, had an absurd mark of 38.0 and had a turnover percentage of 11.9 (better than their season average of 14.6). Miami, meanwhile, launched 30 three pointers, making 12 of them (40.0 percent), while Cleveland was 8-32 (25.0 percent). Bam Adebayo was a key piece for Miami with 16 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. Meanwhile, Derrick Favors led the way for New Orleans, recording 20 points and 20 rebounds.
The Heat dominated this series last year, winning both games. In the most recent game, Miami won 102-96. Miami’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The Heat had 22 offensive rebounds and 57 total rebounds, while the Pelicans had 11 and 38, respectively. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
Of the Pelicans’ 11 games, seven have finished over the total. New Orleans comes into the game with records of 3-8 straight up (SU) and 4-7 against the spread (ATS).
In opposition of New Orleans, Heat games have gone under the total 54.5 percent of the time. Moreover, Miami owns records of 8-3 SU and 7-2-2 ATS.
Miami could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their sharp-shooting offense squares off against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Heat currently rank third in effective field goal percentage (0.549), while New Orleans ranks 26th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.546). Ball protection could be troublesome for the Pelicans. They rank 23rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 15.9 percent), while the Heat force the second-most turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 17.2 percent).
Pelicans at Heat Betting Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Pelicans rank 13th in second chance points per game (13.7) while the Heat rank 26th (11.0).
- Miami averages 20.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (22.2).
- The Heat rank 11th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9) while the Pelicans rank 29th (54.5).
- Miami averages 26.4 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the league. New Orleans ranks 24th in assists allowed per game (25.8).
- New Orleans ranks third in fast break points per game (17.1) while Miami ranks 17th (12.4).
- The Pelicans average 39.4 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Heat rank 27th in three pointers allowed per game (37.5).
- The Heat rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while the Pelicans rank 19th (46.8).
- New Orleans averages 9.2 steals per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Miami ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.8).
- Miami is 3-1 when they allow under 100 points.
- When reaching the century mark, the Pelicans are 3-8 and the Heat are 8-1.
- Miami is 3-0-1 ATS at home, while New Orleans is 2-3 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 2 of the Heat’s 4 home games, while 3 of the Pelicans’ 5 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, New Orleans and Miami have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Heat are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Pelicans are 2-3.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.6 points per game (7.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.4 points per game (1.5 below their season average).
- The Pelicans’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 4.5 for the season.
