The TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) and the New Mexico Lobos (2-2) face off in the Emerald Coast Classic at The Arena at NW Florida St. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 159.5 points with TCU set as a 17.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Friday, November 24, 2017, and it can be seen on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico Lobos vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
The Lobos were beaten by the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles in their last outing, 104-96. With 29 points on 8-for-16 shooting, Chris McNeal was New Mexico’s leading scorer. Tennessee Tech had an effective field goal percentage of 0.656 (above their season average of 0.585). New Mexico, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (14.6 vs. 18.5).
In the Horned Frogs last matchup, they blew out the Omaha Mavericks, 99-66. TCU rallied around Kenrich Williams, who finished with 11 points, six rebounds and six assists. TCU played a perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.235 (matching their season average) and a turnover percentage of 13.5 (better than their season average of 17.4). Omaha was 0.094 and 31.5, respectively, for those same stats.
The sharp-shooting offense of TCU will clash against the mid-tier defense of New Mexico. Dating back to last season, the Horned Frogs offense ranks 58th in effective field goal percentage (0.535), while the New Mexico defense ranks 188th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.504). The Horned Frogs figure to have the edge on that end of the court. Furthermore, the Lobos have been among the NCAA’s best at getting to the line, ranking second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.330). The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, rank 39th at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents FTA rate of 0.199.
The Lobos have had a respectable 19-16 straight up (SU) record since last season, but have had a difficult time covering the spread (12-19 against the spread (ATS)). New Mexico games have had a tendency to go under the projected point total since last season (61.3 percent).
The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, have records of 23-15 SU and 21-20 ATS since last season. Over that same period, TCU’s games have finished over the projected point total 53.7 percent of the time.
New Mexico Lobos vs. TCU Horned Frogs ATS Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Under
Betting Notes (2016-Present):
- The Horned Frogs rank 30th in rebounds allowed per game (32.0) while the Lobos rank 123rd (34.4).
- New Mexico ranks 117th in blocks per game (3.6) while TCU ranks 187th in blocks allowed per game (3.7).
- TCU averages 17.4 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the nation. New Mexico ranks 239th in assists allowed per game (14.3).
- The Horned Frogs average 6.9 steals per game, which ranks 89th in the NCAA. The Lobos rank 257th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
- TCU ranks 82nd in three pointers allowed per game (19.8) while New Mexico ranks 247th (22.9).