New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Week 15 Betting Free Pick

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The New England Patriots (-9) are heading west to face the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. This early afternoon game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS.

Betting Preview: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

In this Sunday AFC matchup, New England is tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 9 points. If they are wanting to play the moneyline, bettors would currently have to put down $400 in order to win $100 back on the Patriots (-400). The Bengals are getting +300 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points. If the underdog strikes in the early stages, it’ll likely produce a nice live betting scenario.

The sharp action has been siding with the Bengals. The opening line was initially set at 10.5 while the game’s O/U was originally 40.

The Patriots are 7-6 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.4 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-9.

The hapless Bengals have lost 11.3 units this season. The team is 5-7-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-8-1.

The Patriots have gone 10-3 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Bengals are 1-12 SU.

The Patriots dropped one to Kansas City 23-16 in a Week 14 matchup where their D let the Chiefs throw for 283 yards. Travis Kelce had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 4 rushing yards and a score on one attempt, along with 66 yards on seven catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Tom Brady completed only 19-of-36 passes for 169 yards, along with a score and a pick. Rex Burkhead (only 15 rushing yards on seven attempts) led the ground attack while Julian Edelman (eight receptions, 95 yards, one TD) and White (five catches, 27 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Cincinnati just dropped a 27-19 game to Cleveland in Week 14. The team’s defense let the Browns rush for 146 yards on 27 attempts, including two rush TDs. Nick Chubb had a solid showing for Cleveland, posting 106 rushing yards on 15 attempts. For Cincinnati, Andy Dalton completed 22-of-38 passes for 262 yards and one interception. Joe Mixon (146 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) handled the running game while Alex Erickson (five receptions, 45 yards) and Tyler Boyd (five catches, 75 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

New England has run the ball on 40 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has a rush percentage of 36.6 percent. The Patriots have produced 96.2 rush yards per game and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Bengals are putting up 85.8 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Patriots should have an advantage in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up only 21 sacks while their D-line registered 30 sacks. The Bengals offensive line has given up 37 sacks and their defense has logged only 34 sacks.

The Pats offensive scheme has logged 271.8 yards per contest through the air overall and has 20 passing scores so far. The Bengals have put up 250.5 pass yards per game and have 12 total pass TDs.

Defensively, New England appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 93 rush yards and 193.5 pass yards per game. The Cincinnati D has given up 253.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 156.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Pats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.08 to opposing QBs, while the Bengals have allowed a 7.67 ANY/A.

Dalton has completed 226-of-376 passes for 2,514 yards, nine TDs and nine INTs. Dalton’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 5.12 for the year and 5.82 over his past two outings. In the other locker room, Brady has put up 3,111 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 292-of-475 attempts with 16 passing touchdowns and six interceptions. Brady has a 6.08 ANY/A, including 4.97 over the last two outings.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Patriots, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The New England D has 41 sacks on the year while Cincinnati has just 21.
  • Cincinnati has lost 12 fumbles this season while the New England offense has lost four.
  • The Patriots offense has created five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bengals have put up seven such plays.
  • The New England defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Cincinnati has given up nine such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced four rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The New England offense has recorded 31 running plays of 10+ yards while Cincinnati has accounted for 33 such plays.
  • The Patriots defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bengals have given up 21 such runs.
  • New England has produced 4.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.
  • Cincinnati has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.0 over its last two.