The San Diego State Aztecs (18-10, 10-7 MWC) and No. 21 Nevada Wolf Pack (26-5, 15-2 MWC) will clash at Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl to wrap up the regular season. San Diego State is a 2-point favorite on the opening line, while the games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 154 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 3, 2018, and it can be seen on CBS Sports Network.
Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs Free Preview
In the Wolf Pack’s last contest, they won big over the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, 101-75. Cody Martin was the games high scorer with 26 points on 10-for-19 shooting. Nevada played a nearly flawless game. They had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 8.0 (better than their season average of 12.7) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.596 (above their season average of 0.551). UNLV recorded marks of 12.8 and 0.432, respectively, for those same stats.
The Aztecs come in on a high note after topping the Boise State Broncos in their last matchup, 72-64. With 15 points on 6-for-8 shooting, Jalen McDaniels led San Diego State in scoring. The Aztecs forced 16 turnovers and had a free throw rate of 0.434 (above their season average of 0.233).
Nevada could struggle to create turnovers. San Diego State ranks 72nd in the nation at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 17.1 percent), while Nevada forces the 216th-most turnovers (18.4 percent). Moreover, the Wolf Pack’s 13th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 118.1) will battle against the Aztecs 29th-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 97.5).
Of Nevada’s 30 games with betting action, 16 have finished over the O/U total, while 13 of San Diego State’s 26 games have finished over the projected point total. The Wolf Pack hold the significant advantage straight up (SU) (26-5 vs. 18-10), but the Aztecs have been superior against the spread (ATS) (16-10 vs. 15-14-1).
Martin has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Nevada, averaging 13.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks per game.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined for 141 points, which was under the projected point total of 151.5. The Wolf Pack won 83-58, covering as 6-point favorites. The Wolf Pack played a perfect game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.267 and a solid effective field goal percentage of 0.558. For those same stats, the Aztecs were 0.097 and 0.419, respectively. Jordan Caroline put up a double-double in the victory with 26 points and 11 rebounds.
Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs Betting Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – Nevada, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Wolf Pack rank 10th in steals allowed per game (4.6) while the Aztecs rank 126th (6.3).
- Nevada ranks 44th in blocks allowed per game (2.7) while San Diego State ranks 111th (3.4).
- On the road, Nevada is 8-7-1 ATS with 9 overs and 7 unders.
- San Diego State is 10-2 ATS at home with 8 unders and 4 overs.
- Nevada ranks 72nd in three pointers attempted per game (24.3) while San Diego State ranks 235th in three pointers allowed per game (23.7).
- The Wolf Pack average 16.5 assists per game, which ranks 26th in the NCAA. The Aztecs rank 164th in assists allowed per game (13.8).
- San Diego State averages 37.8 rebounds per game, which ranks 69th in the nation. Nevada ranks 187th in rebounds allowed per game (35.7).
Betting Trends:
- San Diego State is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Nevada is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Aztecs average margin of victory in their last five games has been 15.8, up from 9.5 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Wolf Pack have scored an average of 88.6 points per game (4.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 76.8 points per game (4.7 above their season average).
