Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs: 11/9/2019 Betting Pick

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The Nevada Wolf Pack (+17) are making a trip west to battle the No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs at SDCCU Stadium. This showdown will kick off pretty late for those on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs

In this Saturday Mountain West game, San Diego State is tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to spend $1,400 to win $100 back on the Aztecs (-1400). The Wolf Pack are getting +780 moneyline odds. If one school can get out in front early it will create a nice in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points.

Odds have swayed some from where they originally opened. The line opened at -17 and the game’s over/under was initially set at 41.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Wolf Pack have recorded 5.0 units while the Aztecs are up 7.5 units.

The Wolf Pack are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against MWC opponents. The Aztecs are 7-1 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.

When these two teams met a year ago, Nevada earned the win 28-24.

The Wolf Pack are coming off a resounding 21-10 victory over New Mexico last week. Carson Strong completed 28 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Toa Taua (just 28 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Devonte Lee (68 yards on nine carries) led the running attack while Romeo Doubs (11 receptions, 167 yards, one TD) and Elijah Cooks (six catches, 74 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

San Diego State just got a 20-17 win over UNLV. Ryan Agnew completed 14-of-23 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Juwan Washington (89 yards on 16 rush attempts) handled the running game while Kobe Smith (seven receptions, 78 yards) and Jesse Matthews (two catches, 15 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Nevada has run the ball on 49.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has an overall rush percentage of 61.8 percent. The Wolf Pack have produced 120.3 rush yards/game (including 109 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Aztecs are logging 150.4 rushing yards per game (142.4 in conference) and have seven total rush TDs.

It seems like the Aztecs ought to own the advantage when it comes to quarterback protection, since their offensive line has yielded just 15 sacks while the D-line has logged 19 sacks. The Wolf Pack offensive line has allowed 23 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss on just 14 occasions.

The Wolf Pack offense has logged 238.1 yards per game in the air overall (245.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing TDs so far. The Aztecs have put up 178.4 pass yards per game (182 in the MWC) and have 10 total pass scores.

Defensively, Nevada has allowed 146.4 rush yards and 268.2 pass yards per game. The San Diego State D has allowed 213.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 69.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.76 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have given up a 7.73 ANY/A.

Offensively, Strong has amassed 1,034 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 62 percent of his 174 attempts with five scores through the air and five interceptions. Strong’s got a 4.54 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.98 over the last two outings.

Romeo Doubs (476 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Devonte Lee (121 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Elijah Cooks (467 receiving yards, five TDs) have each played big roles lately.

In the other locker room, Ryan Agnew has completed 127-of-199 passes for 1,339 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Agnew’s ANY/A sits at 6.05 for the year and 4.77 over his last two outings.

We’re expecting the Aztecs to control tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. Along with WR Kobe Smith (485 receiving yards, four receiving TDs this season), Juwan Washington (354 rush yards, one rush TD, two receiving TDs) and Chase Jasmin (99 rush yards, one rush TD) have been significant focal points in the Aztecs’ recent offensive gameplans.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs Free Prediction

SU Winner: San Diego State, ATS Winner: San Diego State, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • The San Diego State defensive unit has notched 19 sacks on the year while Nevada has 14.
  • San Diego State has lost one fumble this season while Nevada has lost seven.
  • The Wolf Pack offense has tallied four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aztecs have accounted for three such plays.
  • The Nevada defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while San Diego State has given up nine such plays.
  • The Nevada offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while San Diego State has created four such runs.
  • The Wolf Pack defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aztecs have given up four such runs.
  • The O/U for San Diego State’s previous matchup going into it was 44. The under cashed in the 20-17 victory over UNLV.
  • Over its last three matches, San Diego State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three games, Nevada is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Nevada’s previous game was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 21-10 win over New Mexico.
  • Nevada has averaged 2.7 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 2.3 over its last two.
  • San Diego State has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.5 over its past two.