The Nevada Wolf Pack (-13) aren’t traveling far to battle their in-conference foe UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium. Kickoff is fairly late for those on the East Coast (9:30 p.m. ET) and CBS Sports Network is scheduled to have the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels
In this Saturday Mountain West matchup, Nevada is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. The Wolf Pack are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Rebels are +375. If one school catches a lucky break early on it’ll generate a nice in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 64 points.
Square bettors have been hammering the Wolf Pack, as the opening line was 11.5. The game’s O/U has not moved after being set initially at 64.
The Wolf Pack are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.8 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-6-1.
The Rebels have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 7.8 units. The team is 5-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-4.
The Wolf Pack have gone 7-4 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against conference opponents. The Rebels are 3-8 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
The Wolf Pack continue riding high after a 21-12 win over San Jose State last week where Ty Gangi completed 19 passes for 314 yards, along with one TD and an interception. Toa Taua (121 rushing yards on 29 attempts, one TD) provided the running attack while Romeo Doubs (five receptions, 105 yards) and McLane Mannix (four catches, 78 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
UNLV just lost a 35-28 game to Hawaii. The defensive secondary let the Rainbow Warriors air it out for 328 yards and three touchdowns. John Ursua had a good outing, posting 148 yards on six catches for Hawaii. As a group, the Rebels collectively completed 10-of-24 passes for 87 yards and two touchdowns. Armani Rogers went five-for-15 for 60 yards and one touchdown while Max Gilliam was five-of-nine for 27 yards and one touchdown. Lexington Thomas (129 rushing yards on 28 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack while Brandon Presley (three receptions, 27 yards) and Darren Woods Jr. (two catches, 17 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Nevada has run the ball on 47.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UNLV has a rush percentage of 60.3 percent. The Wolf Pack have produced 156.5 rush yards per game (including 150.6 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 22 scores on the ground this year. The Rebels are putting up 224.2 rush yards per game (160.0 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Wolf Pack ought to hold an advantage in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed only 16 sacks while the D-line logged 23 sacks. The Rebels, on the other hand, have allowed 24 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 11 times.
The Wolf Pack offensive scheme has tallied 284.5 yards/contest in the air overall (281.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 22 passing TDs so far. The Rebels have put up 165.4 pass yards per outing (207 against MWC competition) and have 21 total pass scores.
Nevada appears to have an edge in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 126.9 yards and pass for 248.5 yards per game. The UNLV defense has allowed 265.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 188.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolf Pack are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.52 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels have allowed an 8.46 ANY/A.
Offensively, Gangi has amassed 2,432 passing yards this season, and has connected on 59 percent of his 329 attempts with 17 passing scores and eight interceptions. He has a 7.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.99 over the last two games.
Toa Taua, Romeo Doubs and McLane Mannix have collectively accounted for 646 total yards and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
In the other locker room, Max Gilliam has connected on 107-of-199 passes for 1,146 yards, 13 TDs and seven INTs. Gilliam’s ANY/A sits at a less-than-ideal 4.55 for the season and 7.44 over his last two games.
Lexington Thomas (893 rushing yards, 10 rush TDs, 91 receiving yards on the year), Darren Woods Jr. (255 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Brandon Presley (351 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have combined for 486 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last couple of games.
These two squads faced off last year with the final outcome being a 23-16 win for Nevada.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Rebels Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Nevada, ATS Winner: Nevada, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- UNLV has lost six fumbles this season while Nevada has lost 11.
- The Nevada defense has sacked opposing QBs 31 times this season. UNLV has produced just 21 sacks.
- As a team, Nevada has averaged 4.1 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.5 over its last two.
- UNLV has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its past two.
- Over its last three matches, UNLV is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Nevada’s last game was 58.5. The under cashed in the team’s 21-12 victory over San Jose State.
- In its last three contests, Nevada is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for UNLV’s previous matchup was set at 72.5. The under cashed in that 35-28 defeat to Hawaii.
