The Air Force Falcons (13-15, 8-8 MWC) close out their home schedule at Clune Arena as 13.5-point underdogs against the 17th-ranked Nevada Wolf Pack (26-3, 13-3 MWC). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 143.5 points and it will air on ESPN2 at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2019.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons Betting Odds
The Falcons will look to maintain momentum after covering the 2.5-point spread against the Wyoming Cowboys in their last contest, 80-72. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, were defeated by the Utah State Aggies, 81-76, and were unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Air Force game finished 21 points over the projected point total of 131, while the Nevada game went 11.5 points over the projected point total of 145.5.
Air Force played a nearly perfect game. They had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 24.1) and a turnover percentage of 6.7 (better than their season average of 18.0). For those same stats, Wyoming put up marks of 12.1 and 11.5, respectively. Nevada, on the other hand, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4 (above their season average of 26.1). Air Force received a boost from Ryan Swan, who put up 37 points and nine rebounds. Tre’Shawn Thurman, meanwhile led the way for Nevada, contributing 21 points and 10 rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Jordan Caroline led the Wolf Pack to a 67-52 win. He was the game’s top overall scorer with 19 points. Nevada was unable to cover as a 21-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 119 points, which was well under the projected point total of 141. Nevada’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The Wolf Pack had 10 offensive rebounds and 39 total rebounds, while the Falcons had four and 31, respectively.
Of the Wolf Pack’s 28 games that accepted bets, 17 have finished under the total. Nevada heads into the game with records of 26-3 straight up (SU) and 16-11-1 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Falcons’ 27 games that accepted bets, 14 have finished over the projected point total. Additionally, Air Force is 13-15 SU and 13-13-1 ATS.
The ineffective offense of Air Force will clash against the stingy defense of Nevada. The Falcons rank 283rd in offensive efficiency, while the Wolf Pack are 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Wolf Pack should have the advantage on that side of the ball.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons ATS Pick
Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Nevada, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Nevada averages 25.3 three pointers per game, which ranks 61st in the NCAA. Air Force ranks 254th in three pointers allowed per game (25.7).
- The Wolf Pack rank 71st in rebounds per game (37.4) while the Falcons rank 86th in rebounds allowed per game (33.5).
- Nevada ranks 26th in blocks allowed per game (2.5) while Air Force ranks 39th (2.7).
- The Wolf Pack rank seventh in steals allowed per game (4.6) while the Falcons rank 189th (7.2).
- Nevada ranks 45th in assists per game (15.3) while Air Force ranks 164th in assists allowed per game (13.5).
- Nevada is 8-6-1 ATS on the road, while Air Force is 6-6-1 ATS at home.
- Of the Wolf Pack’s 15 road games, they have 8 unders and 7 overs.
- The Falcons have 6 overs, 6 unders and 1 push in 13 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Wolf Pack are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Air Force has 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push, while Nevada has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Falcons have outscored opponents by an average of 1.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Air Force has been defeated by an average of 2.9 points.
- During their last five games, the Wolf Pack have scored an average of 75.6 points per game (5.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 67.2 points per game (0.5 above their season average).
