NCAA Football Free Pick – Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

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The Virginia Cavaliers (+3) will meet their in-conference counterpart North Carolina Tar Heels (-3) at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Fans can tune in to the action on ACC Network and the game is scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers

The Cavaliers come into this Saturday ACC matchup as the underdog and they’re currently getting 3 points. The Cavaliers are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Tar Heels are -140. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points. It appears that there should be some solid live betting possibilities in this showdown.

This game’s opening line was -2. The over/under has yet to change after being initially posted at 47.5.

The Cavaliers have lost 0.8 units so far and are 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-4.

The Tar Heels have gained 2.8 units this season. The team is 4-3-1 ATS and also has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Cavaliers have gone 5-3 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against conference opponents. The Tar Heels are 4-4 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.

The Wahoos fell to Louisville 28-21 in a contest where Bryce Perkins completed 24-of-41 passes for 233 yards, as well as a TD and an interception. Joe Reed (eight receptions, 48 yards) and Hasise Dubois (seven catches, 93 yards) handled the receiving duties.

The North Carolina Heels just put together a 20-17 win over Duke. The defense allowed the Blue Devils to rush for 100 yards on 37 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Deon Jackson had a productive outing in the loss, recording 91 rushing yards on 19 attempts for Duke. For North Carolina, Sam Howell completed 10-of-26 passes for 227 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Javonte Williams (111 rushing yards on 22 attempts) and Michael Carter (64 yards on 12 carries) handled the ground game in the win as Dazz Newsome (four receptions, 103 yards, one TD) and Beau Corrales (two catches, 70 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack.

Virginia’s run the ball on 47.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while North Carolina has a rush percentage of 54.8 percent. The Cavaliers have produced 105.5 rush yards per game (including 111 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Heels are averaging 166.3 rushing yards per game (157.7 in conference) and have four total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Cavaliers should hold an advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts, as their offensive line has given up only 31 sacks while their D-line registered 26 sacks. The Tar Heels offensive line has given up 10 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 32 occasions.

The Wahoos offense has averaged 238.8 yards in the air overall (221.2 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Heels have put up 268 pass yards per outing (263 in the ACC) and have 22 total pass TDs.

Virginia seems to hold the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team has let opponents run for an average of 112.4 yards and throw for 169.1 yards per game. The North Carolina defense has given up 216.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 164.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wahoos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.35 to opposing QBs, while the Heels have given up a 5.55 ANY/A.

Offensively, Perkins has amassed 1,654 passing yards this year, and has completed 159-of-249 attempts with nine scores through the air and seven interceptions. Perkins has a 4.98 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.60 over the last two outings.

On the other sideline, Sam Howell has completed 133-of-221 passes for 1,771 yards, 17 TDs and five INTs. Howell’s ANY/A sits at 7.26 for the year and 7.15 over his past two games.

When these two schools met last year, Virginia earned the win 31-21.

Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels Free Pick

SU Winner: Virginia, ATS Winner: Virginia, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The North Carolina offense has lost four fumbles this season while Virginia has let six get away.
  • The Virginia D has 32 sacks on the year while North Carolina has just 21.
  • Virginia, as a team, has produced 3.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.5 over its last two.
  • North Carolina has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.1 over its last two.
  • In its last three games, North Carolina is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Virginia’s last game was 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-21 defeat to Louisville.
  • Over its last three contests, Virginia is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for North Carolina’s last matchup was set at 53. The under cashed in the 20-17 triumph over Duke.