A couple of teams that like to run the football, Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Tennessee Volunteers (+4) are taking on the Vanderbilt Commodores (-4) at Vanderbilt Stadium. This SEC game is scheduled to get underway at 4:00 p.m. ET and SEC Network will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores
Tennessee is a live dog here and is currently getting 4 points. The Volunteers are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Commodores are -175. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 50 points. If Vanderbilt starts trailing early on, it would likely result in a worthy betting opportunity in-game.
The Volunteers have gained 3.8 units so far and are 5-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 5-6.
The Commodores have lost 0.9 units this season. The team is 7-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-8.
The Volunteers have gone 5-6 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against SEC opponents. The Commodores are 5-6 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play.
These two teams faced off last year with the final result being a 42-24 victory for Vanderbilt.
The Vols are reeling from a 50-17 loss to Missouri last week. The Vols defense allowed the Tigers to eat up the clock by running for 227 yards on 49 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Offensively, Keller Chryst completed only seven passes on 19 attempts for 173 yards and two interceptions. Ty Chandler (82 rushing yards on 14 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack while Jordan Murphy (two receptions, 11 yards) and Marquez Callaway (two catches, 98 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
Vanderbilt is coming off of a 36-29 win over Ole Miss. Kyle Shurmur completed 22-of-34 passes for 191 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (127 rushing yards on 25 attempts, one TD) mounted the running game as Kalija Lipscomb (seven receptions, 69 yards, two TDs) and Jared Pinkney (six catches, 85 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Tennessee’s run the ball on 60.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Vanderbilt has a rush percentage of 51.7 percent. The Volunteers have produced 131.5 rush yards per game (including 108.9 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Commodores are totaling 162.8 rushing yards per game (152.4 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
The Vols offense has logged 201.6 yards per game through the air overall (211.9 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Commodores have recorded 228.6 pass yards per outing (207 against SEC competition) and have 20 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Tennessee seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 159.5 rush yards and 209.8 pass yards per game. The Vanderbilt D has given up 241.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 194.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Vols have given up an ANY/A of 6.27 to opposing QBs, while the Commodores are allowing an ANY/A of 6.55.
Offensively, Guarantano is up to 1,571 passing yards this season, and has connected on 65 percent of his 197 attempts with nine passing scores and only two interceptions. He has a 7.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.48 over the last two outings.
We’re expecting the Volunteers to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Marquez Callaway (500 yards), Ty Chandler (453 rush yards, three rush TDs, three receiving TDs) and Tim Jordan (432 rush yards, two rush TDs, 70 receiving yards) have been focal points in the Tennessee offensive scheme.
Kyle Shurmur has completed 181-of-299 passes for 2,228 yards, 17 TDs and six INTs for Vanderbilt. His ANY/A stands at 6.93 for the season and 6.82 over his last two games.
The Commodores also prefer to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Ke’Shawn Vaughn (123 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Kalija Lipscomb (54 rush yards, 701 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs) and Jared Pinkney (570 receiving yards and five TDs) have gotten quite a few action lately.
Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores Free Prediction
SU Winner: Vanderbilt, ATS Winner: Vanderbilt, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Volunteers offense has produced 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Commodores have accounted for six such plays.
- The Tennessee defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Vanderbilt has given up six such plays.
- The Tennessee offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Vanderbilt has created 15 such runs.
- The Volunteers defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Commodores have given up 17 such runs.
- The Tennessee D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 times this year. Vanderbilt has recorded 19 sacks.
- As a team, Tennessee has produced 3.4 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.4 over its last two.
- Vanderbilt has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.3 over its last two.
- Over its last three matches, Vanderbilt is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Tennessee’s previous game was set at 57.5. The over cashed in the team’s 50-17 loss to Missouri.
- Over its last three games, Tennessee is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Vanderbilt’s last game was set at 73. The under cashed in that 36-29 victory over Ole Miss.
