NCAA Football Free Pick – Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulane Green Wave

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Two schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Coach Willie Fritz and the Tulane Green Wave (-8) are set to face the Navy Midshipmen at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium. This AAC game kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and spectators can tune in to the action on ESPNU.

Betting Preview: Tulane Green Wave vs. Navy Midshipmen

Navy is getting picked to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 8 points in this AAC game. The Midshipmen are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Green Wave are -330. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 53.5 points, and if one squad can find paydirt early, it would likely create a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.

The line opened at -7. The game’s over/under hasn’t moved since it opened at 53.5.

The disappointing Midshipmen are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 9.9 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-5.

The Green Wave have gained 1.4 units this season. The team is 5-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-9.

The Midshipmen have gone 3-8 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against conference opponents. The Green Wave are 5-6 SU overall and are also 4-3 SU in conference play.

These two teams met last year with the final result being a 23-21 win for Navy.

The Midshipmen are coming off a 37-29 win over Tulsa last week where the Midshipmen completed 1-of-2 passes for 15 yards. Zach Abey went one-for-2 for 15 yards while Travis Brannan completed -of- for yards. Abey (128 rushing yards on 26 attempts, two TDs) also mounted the running attack and was complemented by Malcolm Perry (76 yards on six carries). CJ Williams (one receptions, 15 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Tulane just lost in a one-sided affair, 48-17 to Houston. The defense allowed the Cougars to eat up the clock by rushing for 298 yards on 48 attempts, including three rush TDs. Patrick Carr had a solid showing in the win for Houston, recording 139 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 attempts. For Tulane, Justin McMillan completed 10-of-20 passes for 147 yards and two interceptions. Darius Bradwell (89 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) and Corey Dauphine (51 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running game as Jabril Clewis (two receptions, 18 yards) and Terren Encalade (two catches, 52 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Navy’s run the ball on 87.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tulane has an overall rush percentage of 66.6 percent. The Midshipmen have run for 304.1 yards/game (including 302.0 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 35 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Green Wave are totaling 215.5 rush yards per game (238.9 in conference) and have 24 total rushing TDs.

The Midshipmen offense has averaged 60.2 yards in the air overall (47.3 per game against conference opposition) and has three passing TDs so far. The Green Wave have recorded 176.5 pass yards per contest (162 against AAC competition) and have 11 total pass scores.

Defensively, Navy seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 194.5 yards and throw for 245.5 yards per game. The Tulane D has given up 272.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 155.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Green Wave are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.13 to opposing QBs, while the Midshipmen have allowed an 8.15 ANY/A.

Offensively, Abey has put up 79 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 56 percent of his 9 attempts with zero scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 3.00 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.00 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from Navy in this one. Zach Abey (210 rushing yards, 12 rush TDs, 0 receiving yards this season), Tre Walker (254 rush yards, one rush TD, one receiving TD) and Malcolm Perry (958 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 76 receiving yards) have each played big roles of late.

In the home locker room, Justin McMillan has completed 38-of-79 passes for 496 yards, three TDs and two INTs. McMillan’s ANY/A stands at 4.92 for the year and 9.33 over his past two outings.

As a group, Darnell Mooney, Darius Bradwell and Terren Encalade have collectively accounted for 538 total yards and four touchdowns the last couple of outings.

Navy Midshipmen at Tulane Green Wave Free Pick

SU Winner: Tulane, ATS Winner: Tulane, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • Tulane has lost 11 fumbles this season while Navy has lost 10.
  • The Tulane defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 33 times this year. Navy has produced just eight sacks.
  • As a team, Navy has produced 5.0 yards per carry across its last three contests and 6.1 over its last two.
  • Tulane has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.1 over its last two.
  • Over its last three games, Tulane is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Navy’s last game was 51. The over cashed in the team’s 37-29 win over Tulsa.
  • In its last three contests, Navy is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Tulane’s previous game was 68. The under cashed in the team’s 48-17 defeat to Houston.