NCAA Football Free Betting Prediction – South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats

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The South Alabama Jaguars and Texas State Bobcats will collide on the turf at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium. This SBC game kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ is scheduled to broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: South Alabama Jaguars at Texas State Bobcats

In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Texas State is labeled as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Bobcats are -330. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 43.5 points. If the underdog gets out in front in the early stages, it’ll probably create a nice live betting scenario.

The line opened at -7. The game’s total has yet to move after it was initially set at 43.5.

The Jaguars are 4-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-7.

The Bobcats have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 0-5-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-5.

The Jaguars have gone 1-7 straight up (SU), including 0-4 SU against conference opponents. The Bobcats are 2-6 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.

When these two schools faced one another a year ago, South Alabama emerged victorious by a final score of 41-31.

The Jags dropped one to Appalachian State 30-3 in a thumping where the passing attack the primary culprit as the Jaguars completed 6-of-19 passes for 52 yards. Cephus Johnson went three-for-11 for 9 yards while Desmond Trotter completed three-of-eight for 43 yards. Tra Minter (94 yards on 23 rushes) led the ground attack while Minter (one receptions, two yards) and Cade Sutherland (one catch, 30 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Louisiana took care of this Texas State team by a score of 31-3. The Bobcats defense allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns to run for 296 yards on 49 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Elijah Mitchell had a good outing for Louisiana, posting 126 rushing yards and a score on 13 attempts. For Texas State, Tyler Vitt completed 24-of-34 passes for 206 yards and two interceptions. Vitt (38 rushing yards on 10 attempts) handled the running game while Trevis Graham Jr. (six receptions, 52 yards) and Hutch White (five catches, 16 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

South Alabama has run the ball on 62.4 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 60.2 percent across possessions in conference play. Texas State has a rush percentage of 43.1 percent, and has kept it on the ground 49.4 percent of the time when facing SBC opponents. The Jaguars have produced 149.8 rush yards per game (including 123.5 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Bobcats are averaging 79.4 rush yards per game (113 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.

The Jags offense has averaged 141.1 yards through the air overall (135.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing scores so far. The Bobcats have put up 226.3 pass yards per contest (182 against SBC foes) and have eight total pass TDs.

South Alabama has let opponents rush for an average of 221.8 yards and pass for 192.5 yards per game. The Texas State D has allowed 189.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 226.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bobcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.1 to opposing QBs, while the Jaguars have allowed a 6.78 ANY/A.

Offensively, Johnson has put up 717 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 63-of-123 attempts with five passing scores and five interceptions. Johnson’s got a 3.79 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 1.60 over the last two outings.

As a group, Tra Minter, Kawaan Baker and Jalen Tolbert have combined for 325 total yards over the last couple of outings.

Tyler Vitt has completed 39-of-60 passes for 369 yards, two TDs and five INTs for Texas State. His ANY/A stands at a very poor 2.63 for the year and 2.81 over his last two outings.

Look for Vitt to distribute the football early and often in this one. Caleb Twyford (126 receiving yards and one receiving TD this season), Jeremiah Haydel (166 receiving yards), and Trevis Graham Jr. (254 receiving yards, two TDs) have collectively put up 150 receiving yards over the last couple of games.

South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats Free Pick

SU Winner: Texas State, ATS Winner: Texas State, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for South Alabama’s last game was 51. The under cashed in the team’s 30-3 loss to Appalachian State.
  • South Alabama, as a team, has produced 2.4 yards per carry over its past three outings and 2.5 over its last two.
  • Texas State has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.0 over its last two.
  • The Texas State offense has lost three fumbles this season while South Alabama has lost eight.
  • In its last three games, South Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Texas State’s last game going into it was 55. The under cashed in the team’s 31-3 defeat to Louisiana.
  • Over its last three contests, Texas State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Jaguars have made eight pass plays of 30+ yards while the Bobcats have accounted for 10 such plays.
  • The South Alabama defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Texas State has given up four such plays.
  • The South Alabama offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Texas State has created nine such runs.
  • The Jaguars defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bobcats have given up 13 such runs.
  • The South Alabama D has sacked opposing QBs 11 times this year. Texas State has produced eight sacks.