A couple of schools that like to keep the ball on the ground, Coach Lovie Smith and the Illinois Fighting Illini (-30.5) are preparing to play host to their Big 10 nemesis No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers at Memorial Stadium. This daytime game will get going at 12:00 p.m. ET and BTN will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 30.5 points to Illinois. If the Fighting Illini seize control early it would produce a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 49.5 points.
This matchup’s betting odds have swayed a hair from where they were initially posted. The line opened at 28.5 and the game’s O/U was set originally at 49.
The profitable Badgers have gained 3.0 units this season and are 5-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-4.
The Fighting Illini have lost 4.0 units in 2019. The team is 3-3 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Badgers have gone 6-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Fighting Illini are 2-4 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Badgers are hoping to stay undefeated following a 38-0 victory over Michigan State last week. The passing game was on point as Jack Coan completed 18 passes on 21 attempts for only 180 yards and one touchdown. Jonathan Taylor (just 80 rushing yards on 26 attempts, but two TDs) led the ground attack in the win while Danny Davis III (four receptions, 33 yards) and Jake Ferguson (four catches, 62 yards) manned the receiving duties.
One game ago, Michigan knocked off this Illinois team by a score of 42-25. The Fighting Illini defensive unit let the Wolverines kill the clock by rushing for 295 yards on 48 attempts, including three rush TDs. Hassan Haskins put up a good outing in the win, recording 125 rushing yards and a score on 12 attempts for Michigan. For Illinois, Matt Robinson completed 16-of-25 passes for 192 yards and one touchdown. Robinson (-16 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Josh Imatorbhebhe (five receptions, 102 yards, one TD) and Dominic Stampley (four catches, 28 yards) led the Illinois pass-catchers.
Wisconsin’s run the ball on 65.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Illinois has a rush percentage of 54.8 percent. The Badgers have rushed for 248.7 yards/game (including 237 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 23 scores via handoffs this year. The Fighting Illini are logging 146.7 rush yards per game (125.3 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.
Based on the numbers this season, it’s looking like the Badgers ought to hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 5.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 1.8 to opponents. The Fighting Illini have rushed for 3.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.
The Badgers offensive scheme has averaged 199 yards through the air overall (140.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The Fighting Illini have produced 190.8 pass yards per game (142 against Big 10 competition) and have 11 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Wisconsin should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 44.7 yards and throw for 129 yards per game. The Illinois defense has allowed 232.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 201.8 yards per game on the ground. The Badgers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 1.50 to opponents, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 7.48 ANY/A.
Offensively, Coan has put up 985 passing yards on the year, and has completed 76 percent of his 120 attempts with six scores through the air and only one interception. Coan’s got a sparkling 7.95 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.92 over the past two outings.
Matt Robinson has managed to complete 17-of-28 passes for 223 yards, one TD and zero INTs for Illinois. His ANY/A stands at 6.44 for the year and 4.82 across his last two outings.
When these two teams met last year, Wisconsin knocked Illinois off soundly 49-20.
Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Illinois, ATS Winner: Illinois, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Wisconsin defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. Illinois has registered just 15 sacks.
- The Illinois offense has lost five fumbles this season while Wisconsin has lost four.
- Each team has produced one pass play of 40 or more yards. The Badgers have have made four pass plays of 30+ yards while the Fighting Illini have created five such plays.
- The Wisconsin defense has allowed one pass play of 40+ yards, while Illinois has given up five such plays.
- The Wisconsin offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Illinois has created eight such runs.
- The Badgers defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Fighting Illini have given up 14 such runs.
- The O/U for Illinois’ last match was 49.5. The over cashed in the team’s 42-25 loss to Michigan.
- Over its last three matches, Illinois is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matchups, Wisconsin is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Wisconsin’s last game going into it was 40. The under cashed in the team’s 38-0 victory over Michigan State.
- As a team, Wisconsin has produced 5.1 yards per carry over its past three outings and 5.6 over its last two.
- Illinois has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.2 over its past two.
