NCAA Football Free Betting Pick: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave

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Two schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach Willie Fritz and the Tulane Green Wave (-10) are gearing up to play host to their in-conference counterpart Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium. This daytime matchup is scheduled to get underway at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN2.

Betting Preview: Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Tulane Green Wave

Tulsa is a big road underdog in this AAC matchup and is currently being given 10 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to lay down $400 in order to win $100 back on the Green Wave (-400). The Golden Hurricane are getting +300 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 61.5 points. Multiple solid live betting opportunities could be unveiled during the match.

The early action has swayed toward the Green Wave, as the opening line was -9. The game’s total has not changed after it was initially set at 61.5.

The Golden Hurricane are down 3.2 units so far and 5-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 3-5.

The Green Wave have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-2 ATS and five of their games have gone over the total.

The Golden Hurricane are 2-6 straight up (SU), including 0-4 SU against conference opponents. The Green Wave are 5-3 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.

The Golden Hurricane are hoping to get back in stride after a 42-41 defeat to Memphis last week. Zach Smith completed 23-of-40 passes for 309 yards and one touchdown. Shamari Brooks (156 rushing yards on 36 attempts, one TD) and Corey Taylor II (85 yards on 13 carries, three TDs) led the ground attack while Keylon Stokes (nine receptions, 129 yards) and Sam Crawford Jr. (seven catches, 76 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.

Tulane just dropped a 41-38 game to Navy. Justin McMillan completed 20-of-29 passes for 290 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. McMillan (25 rushing yards on 16 attempts, two TDs) and Tyjae Spears (60 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running game as Darnell Mooney (five receptions, 112 yards, one TD) and Jalen McCleskey (four catches, 42 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Tulsa has run the ball on 52.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 49.3 percent across possessions in conference play. Tulane has a rush percentage of 63.1 percent, and has run the ball 60.6 percent of the time against AAC opponents. The Golden Hurricane have produced 132 rush yards per game (including 158 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Green Wave are totaling 257.6 rush yards per game (242.3 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Green Wave may have an edge when it comes to RB efficiency, as their running backs has generated 5.8 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 4.6 to opponents. The Golden Hurricane have rushed for 3.1 yards per carry while allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Golden Hurricane offensive scheme has averaged 272.5 yards through the air overall (288 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Green Wave have recorded 215.9 pass yards per outing (247 against AAC competition) and have 14 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Tulsa has allowed 194.8 rush yards and 204.3 pass yards per game. The Tulane defense has given up 190.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 172.4 yards per game on the ground. The Green Wave are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.78 to opponents, while the Golden Hurricane have given up a 7.42 ANY/A.

Offensively, Smith has put up 1,927 passing yards this season. He’s completed 56 percent of his 265 attempts with 11 scores through the air and four interceptions. Smith has a 6.27 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.82 over the last two games.

Justin McMillan has completed 97-of-161 passes for 1,332 yards, 11 TDs and four INTs for Tulane. His ANY/A stands at 7.55 for the year and 4.56 over his past two games.

When these two teams met last year, Tulane knocked off Tulsa by a touchdown 24-17.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave Free Pick

SU Winner: Tulsa, ATS Winner: Tulsa, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • Each team has produced seven pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Golden Hurricane have have made 15 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Green Wave have created 11 such plays.
  • The Tulsa defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tulane has given up four such plays.
  • The Tulsa offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Tulane has created 17 such runs.
  • The Golden Hurricane defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Green Wave have given up 11 such runs.
  • The Tulane defense has tallied 11 sacks on the year while Tulsa has seven.
  • Tulsa, as a team, has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.9 over its last two.
  • Tulane has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matchups, Tulane is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Tulsa’s last game was 59. The over cashed in the team’s 42-41 defeat to Memphis.
  • Over its last three contests, Tulsa is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Tulane’s last match was set at 58. The over cashed in the 41-38 loss to Navy.
  • Tulsa has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a three-point victory over Wyoming on September 21st accounting for the only win over that stretch.