NCAA Football Free Betting Pick – SMU Mustangs vs. Memphis Tigers

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In a matchup between a couple of schools ranked in the Top 25 nationally, the No. 24 Tigers of Memphis (-6) are gearing up to welcome their conference counterpart SMU Mustangs to Liberty Bowl Memorial. ABC will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Memphis Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs

In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, Memphis is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 6 points. The Mustangs are also receiving +185 moneyline odds while the Tigers are -230. There will probably be some good in-game betting opportunities in this matchup, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 70 points.

Square bettors are siding with the Tigers, as the opening line was -3. The game’s total has not moved after it was initially posted at 70.

Each team has been profitable this season as the Mustangs have gained 9.5 units while the Tigers are up 3.1 units.

The Mustangs have gone 8-0 straight up (SU), including 4-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Tigers are 7-1 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.

The Mustangs are looking to remain undefeated following a 34-31 victory over Houston last week. The defense allowed the Cougars to pass for 407 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 103 yards. Marquez Stevenson was on a different level for the Cougars in that one with 211 yards and two touchdowns on five catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Shane Buechele completed only 20 passes on 38 attempts for 203 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Xavier Jones (133 rushing yards on 22 attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground attack in the win while James Proche (seven receptions, 83 yards, one TD) and Kylen Granson (six catches, 76 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Memphis just earned a 42-41 win over Tulsa. The team’s defense let the Golden Hurricane pass for 309 yards while rushing for 275 yards and four scores. Shamari Brooks was on a different level for Tulsa, recording 156 rushing yards and a score on 36 attempts. For Memphis, Brady White completed 15-of-25 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns. Kenneth Gainwell (149 yards on 24 rush attempts, three TDs) mounted the ground game in the win while Damonte Coxie (five receptions, 112 yards) and Calvin Austin III (three catches, 57 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

When glancing at offensive play-calling, each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. SMU’s run the ball on 55.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Memphis has an overall rush percentage of 57.3. The Mustangs have produced 202.8 rush yards/game (including 188.8 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 24 scores via handoffs this year. The Tigers are averaging 188.1 rushing yards per game (134.5 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.

The Mustangs offense has tallied 301.4 yards per contest through the air overall (305.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Tigers have produced 282.5 pass yards per game (306 in the AAC) and also have 20 total pass TDs.

SMU has let opponents run for an average of 116.6 yards and pass for 270.9 yards per game. The Memphis defense has allowed 186.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 188.8 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Mustangs have given up an ANY/A of 5.52 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are allowing an ANY/A of 5.13.

Passing-wise, Buechele is up to 1,868 yards this season. He’s completed 152-of-235 attempts with 14 scores through the air and six interceptions. Buechele has a 7.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.43 over the last two outings.

Brady White has completed 124-of-181 passes for 1,803 yards, 15 TDs and four INTs for Memphis. His ANY/A sits at 9.60 for the year and 14.35 over his past two outings.

When these two teams met last year, Memphis earned the win 28-18.

SMU Mustangs vs. Memphis Tigers Free Pick

SU Winner: SMU, ATS Winner: SMU, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Mustangs offense has created 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have accounted for 15 such plays.
  • The SMU defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Memphis has given up two such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The SMU offense has recorded 37 running plays of 10+ yards while Memphis has accounted for 38 such plays.
  • The Mustangs defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up 12 such runs.
  • The SMU defense has sacked opposing QBs 36 times this season. Memphis has produced just 16 sacks.
  • SMU, as a team, has produced 3.7 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Memphis has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.5 over its past two.
  • In its last three games, Memphis is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for SMU’s last game was 65. The O/U pushed in the team’s 34-31 victory over Houston.
  • In its last three contests, SMU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Memphis’ last matchup was 59. The over cashed in the team’s 42-41 win over Tulsa.