NCAA Football Free Betting Pick: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers

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Two schools that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Matt Luke and the Ole Miss Rebels (+19) are set to face off against the No. 11 Auburn Tigers (-19) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This conference showdown gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can view the action live on ESPN. When the two schools faced one another last year, Auburn got the victory 31-16.

Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers

Ole Miss is a live dog and is currently getting 19 points in this Saturday SEC matchup. The Rebels are also receiving +830 moneyline odds while the Tigers are -1550. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 52.5 points. If the favorite gets behind early on, it’ll likely result in a nice betting opportunity in-game.

The Rebels are 4-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 2.4 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-4.

The Tigers have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 3.3 units. The team is 7-1 ATS and also has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Rebels are only 3-5 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 6-2 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.

The Rebels are looking to bounce back after a 24-17 defeat to Texas A&M on October 19. the Rebels completed 14-of-31 passes for 155 yards and one interception. Matt Corral went 10-for-17 for 124 yards and one interception while John Rhys Plumlee completed four-of-12 for 31 yards. Scottie Phillips (67 yards on 14 rush attempts) and John Rhys Plumlee (38 yards on 13 carries) led the ground attack while Elijah Moore (five receptions, 59 yards) and Snoop Conner (three catches, 22 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One game ago, LSU knocked off this Auburn crew by a score of 23-20. The Tigers defensive unit allowed the Tigers to pass for 321 yards while rushing for 187 yards and two scores. Clyde Edwards-Helaire shredded the defense, recording 136 rushing yards and a score on 26 attempts, along with 51 yards on seven catches for LSU. For Auburn, Bo Nix completed 15-of-35 passes for 157 yards, one touchdown and one interception. D.J. Williams (130 rushing yards on 13 attempts) handled the running attack while Williams (four receptions, 65 yards, one TD) and Anthony Schwartz (three catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Ole Miss has run the ball on 61.0 percent of its offensive possessions while Auburn has an overall rush percentage of 62.5. The Rebels have produced 232.5 rush yards per game (including 276.6 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tigers are averaging 225.9 rushing yards per game (192.4 in conference) and have 21 total rush TDs.

The Rebels offensive scheme has tallied 201.6 yards per game through the air overall (186.6 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Tigers have recorded 189 pass yards per outing (192 in the SEC) and have 14 total pass scores.

Defensively, Ole Miss has let opponents run for an average of 124.3 yards and pass for 284.4 yards per game. The Auburn D has allowed 236.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.9 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.51 to opponents, while the Rebels have allowed a 6.50 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Corral has amassed 968 yards on the year, and has completed 60 percent of his 131 attempts with four scores through the air and two interceptions. Corral has a 6.19 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.54 over the last two outings.

Bo Nix has completed 98-of-187 passes for 1,282 yards, nine TDs and six INTs for Auburn. His ANY/A sits at 5.56 for the season and 5.75 across his past two games.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Pick

SU Winner: Auburn, ATS Winner: Ole Miss, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Rebels offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have accounted for five such plays.
  • The Ole Miss defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Auburn has given up seven such plays.
  • The Ole Miss offense has created 24 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Auburn has created 14 such runs.
  • The Rebels defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up nine such runs.
  • The Auburn D has notched 23 sacks on the year while Ole Miss has 22.
  • Ole Miss has produced 6.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
  • Auburn has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.1 over its past two.
  • Over its last three matches, Auburn is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Ole Miss’ previous game going into it was 55. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 defeat to Texas A&M.
  • In its last three matches, Ole Miss is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Auburn’s previous game was set at 59. The under cashed in the 23-20 defeat to LSU.
  • Ole Miss has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 25-point victory over Vanderbilt on October 5th accounting for the only win over that span.