Two schools that like to deploy their running games, Coach P.J. Fleck and the Minnesota Golden Gophers (+10) will be taking on their Big 10 nemesis Wisconsin Badgers (-10) at Camp Randall Stadium. ESPN2 will televise the action and the afternoon game is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
This Saturday Big 10 game shows the Golden Gophers as a big underdogs and they’re currently being given 10 points. If they want to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to spend $400 in order to win $100 back on the Badgers (-400). The Golden Gophers are getting +300 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54 points. There might be some good live betting possibilities in this game.
The Golden Gophers are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.6 units so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 6-5.
The Badgers are down 0.5 units this season. The team is 3-8 ATS and also has an O/U record of 6-5.
The Golden Gophers are 5-6 straight up (SU), including 2-6 SU against conference opponents. The Badgers are 7-4 SU overall and 5-3 SU in conference play.
The Golden Gophers are looking to get back on track after a 24-14 defeat to Northwestern last week where Tanner Morgan completed 19-of-32 passes for 197 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Mohamed Ibrahim (98 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Morgan (four yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack. Tyler Johnson (eight receptions, 88 yards, one TD) and Rashod Bateman (four catches, 54 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Wisconsin is coming off of a 47-44 win over Purdue. Jack Coan completed 16-of-24 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor logged an outstanding statline in the win. Along with 321 rushing yards on 33 attempts (and three TDs), Taylor also reeled in five catches for 89 yards.
Minnesota has run the ball on 57.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Wisconsin has an overall rush percentage of 65.0 percent. The Golden Gophers have produced 160.0 rush yards/game (including 151.9 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 18 scores on the ground this year. The Badgers are averaging 277.4 rushing yards per game (274.5 in conference) and have 28 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Badgers may own an advantage in terms of RB effectiveness, since their running backs has logged 6.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Golden Gophers have ran for 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.2 to opponents.
The Gophers offense has tallied 223.5 yards per game through the air overall (234.9 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Badgers have recorded 166.7 pass yards per contest (155 against Big 10 competition) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, Minnesota has allowed opponents to run for an average of 170.7 yards and pass for 226.8 yards per game. The Wisconsin defense has allowed 207.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 154.0 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Gophers have given up an ANY/A of 6.23 to opposing QBs, while the Badgers are allowing an ANY/A of 5.74.
Offensively, Morgan has amassed 1,006 passing yards this season. He’s completed 60 percent of his 105 attempts with six scores through the air and five interceptions. Morgan has a 7.55 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.84 over the last two games.
Mohamed Ibrahim, Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman have combined to account for 509 total yards and three touchdowns as a trio over the last two outings.
In the other huddle, Jack Coan has completed 41-of-62 passes for 428 yards, four TDs and zero INTs. Coan’s ANY/A sits at 7.72 for the year and 3.24 over his last two outings.
Jonathan Taylor (1,684 rushing yards, 14 rush TDs on the year), Danny Davis III (347 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and A.J. Taylor (495 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have combined to account for 701 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns the last two games.
When these two programs met a year ago, Wisconsin won easily 31-0.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers Free Pick
SU Winner: Minnesota, ATS Winner: Minnesota, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Golden Gophers offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Badgers have accounted for two such plays.
- The Minnesota defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Wisconsin has given up seven such plays.
- The Minnesota offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Wisconsin has created 28 such runs.
- The Golden Gophers defense has allowed 22 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Badgers have given up 14 such runs.
- The Minnesota defense has sacked opposing QBs 20 times this season. Wisconsin has recorded 18 sacks.
- Minnesota has produced 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its last two.
- Wisconsin has averaged 6.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.8 over its last two.
- In its last three matchups, Wisconsin is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Minnesota’s last game was set at 48.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-14 defeat to Northwestern.
- In its last three games, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Wisconsin’s last match was set at 56.5. The over cashed in the team’s 47-44 win over Purdue.
