The Liberty Flames and Massachusetts Minutemen are ready to square off on the turf at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium. This IndFBS matchup kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action live on FLOF. These teams met last year with the final result being a 62-59 victory for Massachusetts.
Betting Preview: Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Liberty Flames
Liberty is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 21.5 points to Massachusetts. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 68 points. If one school can catch a lucky break early, it will probably generate a reasonable live betting scenario.
Sharp bettors have been siding with the over. This game’s total was set originally at 67.
The Flames are down 0.5 units so far and 3-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-5.
The Minutemen have lost 2.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-7 ATS and the over has hit in six of their games.
The Flames have gone 5-3 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against IndFBS opponents. The Minutemen are 1-7 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Flames are reeling from a 44-34 defeat to Rutgers last week. Stephen Calvert completed just 17-of-31 passes for 244 yards and one touchdown. Joshua Mack (109 yards on 11 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack while Antonio Gandy-Golden (five receptions, 68 yards, one TD) and Kevin Shaa (four catches, 89 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Massachusetts just suffered a 56-35 loss to Connecticut. The defense let the Huskies rush for 326 yards on 41 attempts, including six rush TDs. Kevin Mensah was on a different level for Connecticut, recording 164 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 19 attempts. For Massachusetts, Andrew Brito completed 20-of-40 passes for 239 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Bilal Ally (159 yards on 25 rush attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the running game while Jermaine Johnson Jr. (four receptions, 92 yards, one TD) and Sadiq Palmer (four catches, 48 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Liberty has run the ball on 48.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Massachusetts has a rush percentage of 52.7 percent. The Flames have run for 132.3 yards/game and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Minutemen are logging 142.1 rushing yards per game and have 12 total rush TDs.
The Flames offensive scheme has tallied 276.6 yards per contest through the air overall and has 16 passing scores so far. The Minutemen have produced 177 pass yards per outing and have 10 total pass TDs.
Liberty seems to hold an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team’s let opponents rush for an average of 207.4 yards and pass for 234.1 yards per game. The Massachusetts D has given up 278.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 271.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Flames are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.44 to opponents, while the Minutemen have allowed an ugly 9.26 ANY/A.
Offensively, Calvert is up to 1,813 passing yards this season, and has completed 60 percent of his 220 attempts with 11 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Calvert has a 7.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.99 over the past two outings.
In the home locker room, Andrew Brito has completed 60-of-108 passes for 554 yards, four TDs and five INTs. Brito’s ANY/A sits at a horrendous 3.00 for the year and 5.49 over his last two games.
Liberty Flames vs. Massachusetts Minutemen Betting Pick
SU Winner: Massachusetts, ATS Winner: Massachusetts, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- Massachusetts has lost three fumbles this season while Liberty has let five get away.
- The Liberty defense has 22 sacks on the year while Massachusetts has just eight.
- Liberty, as a team, has produced 4.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.9 over its last two.
- Massachusetts has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its past two.
- In its last three games, Massachusetts is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Liberty’s previous game was 44. The over cashed in the team’s 44-34 defeat to Rutgers.
- In its last three contests, Liberty is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Massachusetts’ last match was set at 61.5. The over cashed in the 56-35 defeat to Connecticut.
