In a collision of two schools that like to keep it on the ground, Coach Chad Lunsford and the Georgia Southern Eagles (-8) are set to take the field against their conference counterpart Georgia State Panthers at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. The game will start at 6:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ will televise the action.
Betting Preview: Georgia State Panthers at Georgia Southern Eagles
The Panthers approach this Saturday SBC game as a noticeable dog here and they’re currently getting 8 points. The Panthers are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Eagles are -330. There should be some good in-game betting opportunities for the showdown, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 58 points.
Each team has rewarded gamblers this season as the Panthers have gained 3.8 units and the Eagles are up 4.3 units.
The Panthers have gone 7-4 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against SBC opponents. The Eagles are 6-5 SU overall and are also 4-3 SU in conference play.
The Panthers are coming off a resounding 28-15 win over South Alabama last week where Dan Ellington completed 21-of-27 passes for 208 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Tra Barnett (128 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) and Destin Coates (33 yards on 11 carries, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack in the win while Roger Carter (seven receptions, 87 yards, one TD) and Cornelius McCoy (seven catches, 53 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Georgia Southern just lost a 38-33 game to Arkansas State. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Red Wolves to air it out for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Jonathan Adams Jr. was on a different level for Arkansas State, recording 158 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. For Georgia Southern, Shai Werts completed 14-of-24 passes for 175 yards and three touchdowns. Wesley Kennedy III (74 yards on 19 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Werts (158 yards on 18 carries, one TD) led the ground game in the defeat while Mark Michaud (six receptions, 96 yards, two TDs) and Malik Murray (four catches, 22 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Georgia State’s run the ball on 61.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia Southern has an overall rush percentage of 82 percent. The Panthers have produced 257.6 rush yards per game (including 294.3 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 28 scores via handoffs this year. The Eagles are totaling 259.1 rushing yards per game (265 in conference) and have 23 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Panthers may be the more disruptive team in the trenches, since their offensive line has given up only 25 sacks while their D-line registered 13 sacks. The Eagles O-line has allowed 19 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 26 times.
The Panthers offensive scheme has averaged 203.5 yards in the air overall (197.1 per game against conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Eagles have produced 72.7 pass yards per contest (91 against SBC competition) and have nine total pass TDs.
Defensively, Georgia State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 205.5 yards and pass for 254.4 yards per game. The Georgia Southern defense has allowed 245.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 139.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Panthers have given up an ANY/A of 8.08 to opposing QBs, while the Eagles are allowing an ANY/A of 7.8.
Offensively, Ellington is up to 2,021 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 67 percent of his 275 attempts with 20 scores through the air and only five interceptions. He’s got a 7.27 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.87 over the past two outings.
Shai Werts has managed to complete 45-of-88 passes for 551 yards, eight TDs and zero INTs for Georgia Southern. His ANY/A stands at 5.45 for the season and 7.80 over his last two outings.
These two squads faced off a year ago with the final result being a 35-14 victory for Georgia Southern.
Georgia State Panthers at Georgia Southern Eagles Free Pick
SU Winner: Georgia State, ATS Winner: Georgia State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Georgia State defense has 19 sacks on the year while Georgia Southern has 18.
- The Georgia Southern offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while the Georgia State offense has lost seven.
- The Panthers offense has tallied five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Eagles have put up one such play.
- The Georgia State defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Georgia Southern has given up 13 such plays.
- The Georgia State offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Georgia Southern has created 29 such runs.
- The Panthers defense has allowed 24 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Eagles have given up 12 such runs.
- The O/U for Georgia Southern’s last game was set at 52.5. The over cashed in that 38-33 defeat to Arkansas State.
- Over its last three matches, Georgia Southern is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three matchups, Georgia State is 1-2 ATS.
- The O/U for Georgia State’s last game going into it was 57.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-15 victory over South Alabama.
- Georgia State, as a team, has produced 5.9 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.6 over its last two.
- Georgia Southern has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.3 over its last two.