NCAA Football Free ATS Pick – Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators

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The Vanderbilt Commodores (+25) are heading south to face their SEC rival No. 10 Florida Gators at Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPN will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt is the noticeable underdog here and is currently receiving 25 points from bookmakers. If the Gators stumble early it will result in a decent in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points.

The opening line was -24 while the over/under has yet to move after it was set initially at 47.

The underwhelming Commodores are 1-7 against the spread (ATS) and are down 12.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 2-6.

The surprising Gators have gained 3.2 units this season. They’re 3-3-2 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-5.

The Commodores have gone only 2-6 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against SEC opponents. The Gators are 7-2 SU overall and 4-2 SU in conference play.

The Commodores came up short to South Carolina 24-7 in a blowout where the passing game could’ve been sharper as Deuce Wallace completed just eight-of-17 passes for 30 yards and two interceptions. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (87 yards on 20 rushes) led the ground attack while C.J. Bolar (three receptions, 16 yards) and Vaughn (two catches, 11 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Georgia got the victory against this Florida crew by a score of 24-17. Kyle Trask completed 21-of-33 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Lamical Perine (31 yards on seven rush attempts) led the running game while Freddie Swain (eight receptions, 91 yards, one TD) and Pitts (four catches, 78 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Vanderbilt’s run the ball on 46.4 percent of its offensive possessions while Florida has an overall rush percentage of 48.3. The Commodores have run for 125.9 yards/game (including 117.2 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Gators are averaging 128.9 rushing yards per game (119.8 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

The Commodores offense has logged 191.3 yards per contest through the air overall (156.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has seven passing scores so far. The Gators have put up 275 pass yards per game (275 against SEC foes) and have 23 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Vanderbilt has allowed 202.5 rush yards and 251.1 pass yards per game. The Florida defense has given up 204.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.6 yards per game on the ground. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.49 to opponents, while the Commodores have given up a staggering 8.73 ANY/A.

Offensively, Hasan has amassed 120 passing yards this season, and has connected on 64 percent of his 11 attempts with one scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Hasan has a sparkling 11.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

We expect the Vanderbilt offense to mix it up in this one. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (694 rushing yards, five rush TDs, 154 receiving yards on the year), Cam Johnson (210 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Mo Hasan (34 rush yards, 0 receiving yards) have each played big roles lately.

Kyle Trask has connected on 114-of-169 passes for 1,448 yards, 12 TDs and three INTs for Florida. His ANY/A stands at 7.96 for the season and 6.99 over his last two games.

Similar to the Commodores, expect a balanced attack offensively from Florida this Saturday. Lamical Perine, Freddie Swain and Kyle Pitts have collectively accounted for 340 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns the last two games.

When these two teams faced each other last year, Florida emerged victorious by a score of 37-27.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Florida, ATS Winner: Vanderbilt, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Florida defense has sacked opposing QBs 29 times this season. Vanderbilt has registered just 11 sacks.
  • Florida has lost eight fumbles this season while the Vanderbilt offense has lost two.
  • The Commodores offense has tallied six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Gators have put up five such plays.
  • The Vanderbilt defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while Florida has given up five such plays.
  • The Vanderbilt offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Florida has created eight such runs.
  • Both defenses have allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Commodores have given up 49 running plays of 10+ yards while the Gators have given up 34 such plays.
  • The Over/Under for Florida’s previous outing going into it was 48. The under cashed in that 24-17 defeat to Georgia.
  • In its last three games, Florida is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three contests, Vanderbilt is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Vanderbilt’s last game was set at 51. The under cashed in the team’s 24-7 defeat to South Carolina.
  • Vanderbilt has produced 4.6 yards per carry across its past three games and 3.7 over its last two.
  • Florida has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.6 over its past two.