NCAA Football Free ATS Pick: Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes

Posts AdminArticles, College Football, Football

The No. 23 Stanford Cardinal (-3.5) are making a trip east to visit the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Kickoff for this Pac-12 game is set for 3:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action live on Pac-12 Networks. These two conference foes did not get a chance to face one another in 2018.

Betting Preview: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Stanford Cardinal

Colorado enters this Pac-12 game as the underdog and is currently getting 3.5 points. The Cardinal are also receiving -175 moneyline odds while the Buffaloes are +155. If one team finds paydirt early it’ll result in a nice live betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54.5 points.

The game’s total has been driven lower after opening at 55. The original line of 3.5 has stayed consistent.

The Cardinal are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.8 units so far. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-3.

The Buffaloes have lost 0.8 units this season. The team is 4-5 ATS and has an even O/U record of 4-4-1.

The Cardinal are 4-4 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against conference opponents. The Buffaloes are 3-6 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.

The Cardinal enter after a 41-31 victory over Arizona on October 26 where K.J. Costello completed 31-of-44 passes for 322 yards and three touchdowns. Cameron Scarlett (102 yards on 19 rushes, two TDs) led the running attack while Connor Wedington (eight receptions, 71 yards) and Michael Wilson (six catches, 45 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Colorado just fell 31-14 to UCLA. The team’s defense allowed the Bruins to eat up the clock by rushing for 200 yards on 46 attempts, including two rush TDs. Joshua Kelley had a productive showing in the win, recording 126 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 23 attempts for UCLA. For Colorado, Steven Montez completed 21-of-38 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Jaren Mangham (77 rushing yards on 17 attempts) spearheaded the running attack while Tony Brown (six receptions, 77 yards, one TD) and K.D. Nixon (six catches, 56 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Looking at offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Stanford has run the ball on 47.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Colorado has a rush percentage of 49.7. The Cardinal have rushed for 119.3 yards/game (including 117.7 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have six scores on the ground this year. The Buffaloes are averaging 151.7 rush yards per game (154.7 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.

The Cardinal offensive scheme has logged 229.3 yards per game in the air overall (228 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Buffaloes have put up 254.7 pass yards per contest (244 in the Pac-12) and have 15 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Stanford appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 150.5 rush yards and 263.5 pass yards per game. The Colorado D has given up 316 yards per game to opposing passers and 164.1 yards per game on the ground. The Cardinal are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.16 to opposing QBs, while the Buffaloes have allowed an 8.25 ANY/A.

Offensively, Costello is up to 793 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 84-of-138 attempts with five scores through the air and two interceptions. He’s got a 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.68 over the past two games.

As a group, Cameron Scarlett, Simi Fehoko and Connor Wedington have combined for 418 total yards and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

On the other sideline, Steven Montez has managed to complete 174-of-278 passes for 1,918 yards, 11 TDs and nine INTs. Montez’s ANY/A sits at 5.71 for the year and 6.06 over his past two games.

As a group, Laviska Shenault Jr., Tony Brown and Jaren Mangham have combined to account for 506 total yards and two touchdowns over the last couple of games.

Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes Bedding Prediction

SU Winner: Stanford, ATS Winner: Stanford, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The Stanford defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this year. Colorado has registered 15 sacks.
  • The Colorado offense has lost two fumbles in 2019 while the Stanford offense has let three get away.
  • The Cardinal offense has tallied two pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Buffaloes have put up five such plays.
  • The Stanford defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Colorado has given up nine such plays.
  • The Stanford offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Colorado has created eight such runs.
  • The Cardinal defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Buffaloes have given up 11 such runs.
  • Stanford has won four of its last five games SU, with an 18-point loss to UCLA on October 17th accounting for the only defeat over that stretch.
  • Colorado has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a three-point win over Arizona State on September 21st accounting for its one victory over that stretch.
  • Stanford, as a team, has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.4 over its last two.
  • Colorado has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.