Two teams that like to keep the ball on the ground, Trojans of USC (+10.5) are gearing up to welcome the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10.5) to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Fans can catch the action live on ABC and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. USC Trojans
In this Saturday game, Notre Dame is getting picked as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 10.5 points. The Fighting Irish are also receiving -425 moneyline odds while the Trojans are +315. If one team gets out in front early on it will create a worthwhile live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 53.5 points.
The early action has shifted toward the Fighting Irish, as the opening line was 8. The O/U has not changed after it was initially established at 53.5.
The profitable Fighting Irish have gained 8.3 units so far and are 6-4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 6-5.
The hapless Trojans have lost 4.1 units this season. They’re 3-8 ATS and also have an O/U record of 6-5.
The Fighting Irish are 11-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Trojans are 5-6 SU.
The Fighting Irish are hoping to stay unbeaten after a 36-3 win over Syracuse last week where Ian Book completed 23-of-37 passes for 292 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Dexter Williams (74 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack in the win. Miles Boykin (seven receptions, 76 yards) and Chase Claypool (six catches, 98 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
A week ago, UCLA took care of this USC team by a score of 34-27. The Trojans defense allowed the Bruins to eat up the clock by rushing for 313 yards on 52 attempts, including three rush TDs. Joshua Kelley was outstanding, putting up 289 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 40 attempts for the Bruins. For USC, JT Daniels completed 20-of-34 passes for 337 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Vavae Malepeai (77 rushing yards on 15 attempts) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Michael Pittman Jr. (seven receptions, 106 yards) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (six catches, 98 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps.
Notre Dame has run the ball on 57.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while USC has a rush percentage of 51.2 percent. The Fighting Irish have run for 196.8 yards/game and have 26 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Trojans are putting up 137.1 rush yards per game and have 16 total rushing TDs.
Based on the results so far, it seems like the Fighting Irish could own an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, since their running backs has produced 4.6 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Trojans have registered 4.1 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Irish offensive scheme has averaged 257.7 yards in the air overall and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Trojans have produced 240.0 pass yards per game and have 17 total pass scores.
Notre Dame seems to have an edge in both defensive phases. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 137.1 yards and pass for 184.3 yards per game. The USC defense has allowed 211.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.4 yards per game on the ground. The Irish are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.33 to opposing QBs, while the Trojans have given up a 6.05 ANY/A.
Offensively, Book is up to 2,116 passing yards this season, and has completed 73 percent of his 241 attempts with 17 scores through the air and only five interceptions. Book has an 8.65 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.26 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from Notre Dame in this one. Dexter Williams (642 rushing yards, nine rush TDs, one receiving touchdown on the year), Brandon Wimbush (112 rush yards, one rush TD, 0 receiving yards) and Chase Claypool (546 receiving yards, four TDs) have all played key roles lately.
JT Daniels has managed to complete 158-of-278 passes for 2,143 yards, 11 TDs and nine INTs for USC. His ANY/A sits at 6.14 for the year and 5.70 over his past two games.
We’re thinking the Trojans will control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to Amon-Ra St. Brown (603 receiving yards, three receiving TDs this season), Vavae Malepeai (433 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Aca’Cedric Ware (654 rush yards, six rush TDs) have brought significant production to the USC offense.
When these two squads met last year, Notre Dame won by five touchdowns 49-14.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: USC, ATS Winner: USC, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Fighting Irish offense has produced six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Trojans have accounted for 14 such plays.
- The Notre Dame defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while USC has given up six such plays.
- The Notre Dame offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while USC has created 16 such runs.
- The Fighting Irish defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Trojans have given up 14 such runs.
- The Notre Dame D has sacked opposing QBs 29 times this year. USC has produced 26 sacks.
- Notre Dame has averaged 5.2 yards per carry across its past three games and 6.2 over its last two.
- USC has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its past two.
- In its last three matchups, USC is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Notre Dame’s last game going into it was 63. The under cashed in the team’s 36-3 victory over Syracuse.
- In its last three matchups, Notre Dame is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for USC’s last game going into it was 55. The over cashed in that 34-27 defeat to UCLA.
- USC has dropped five of its last six games SU, with a 17-point win over Oregon State on November 3rd representing the one victory over that stretch.
