NCAA Football Betting Free Pick: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Miami (OH) RedHawks

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It’ll be a MAC-SBC showdown as the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns are considerable favorites against the Miami (OH) RedHawks in the LendingTree Bowl. Kickoff for this importantgame is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to the action on ESPN.

Betting Preview: Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

In this early-week game, Louisiana is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. The Ragin’ Cajuns are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the RedHawks are +500. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54.5 points, and if one school can get out in front in the early stages, it’ll probably generate a worthwhile in-game betting scenario.

The game’s total has swung lower after opening at 56. The original line (-14) has yet to change.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Ragin’ Cajuns have gained 3.0 units and the RedHawks are up 5.3 units.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have gone 10-3 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the RedHawks are 8-5 SU.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are on the rebound after a 45-38 defeat to Appalachian State on December 7Their defense allowed the Mountaineers to eat up the clock by rushing for 267 yards on 51 attempts, including three rush TDs. Darrynton Evans had a productive day for the Mountaineers in that one with 73 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts, along with 63 yards and two touchdowns on two catches. On the offense, Levi Lewis completed just 24 passes on 46 attempts for 354 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Elijah Mitchell (85 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while Ja’Marcus Bradley (five receptions, 58 yards, one TD) and Jarrod Jackson (four catches, 80 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Miami (OH) enters this one after just getting a 26-21 win over Central Michigan. The defensive secondary let the Chippewas air it out for 256 yards. JaCorey Sullivan had a good outing in the loss for Central Michigan, recording 64 yards and a score on seven catches. For Miami (OH), Brett Gabbert completed 14-of-27 passes for 196 yards and one touchdown. Jaylon Bester (66 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win while Jack Sorenson (eight receptions, 123 yards, one TD) and James Maye (two catches, 42 yards) led the receiving corps.

Louisiana has run the ball on 58.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami (OH) has a rush percentage of 61.8 percent. The Ragin’ Cajuns have run for 265.3 yards per game and have 41 scores via handoffs this year. The RedHawks are putting up 133.1 rushing yards per game and have 20 total rush TDs.

The Ragin’ Cajuns offense has tallied 236 yards per game through the air overall and has 25 passing TDs so far. The RedHawks have produced 172.8 pass yards per contest and have 11 total pass scores.

Defensively, Louisiana has allowed 179.5 rush yards and 193.8 pass yards per game. The Miami (OH) defense has given up 206.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 174.1 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have given up an ANY/A of 5.15 to opposing QBs, while the RedHawks are allowing an ANY/A of 5.44.

Passing-wise, Lewis has amassed 2,534 yards this season, and has completed 64 percent of his 329 attempts with 21 passing scores and only four interceptions. He has a 7.80 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.44 over the last two games.

We’re looking for Ragin’ Cajuns to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Ja’Marcus Bradley (691 yards, seven TDs), Elijah Mitchell (990 rush yards, 15 rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Raymond Calais (760 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been focal points in the Louisiana offensive scheme.

In the other huddle, Brett Gabbert has managed to complete 147-of-277 passes for 2,047 yards, 10 TDs and eight INTs. Gabbert’s ANY/A stands at 5.90 for the year and 9.69 over his past two games.

The RedHawks also prefer to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Jack Sorenson (385 receiving yards, three receiving TDs), Jaylon Bester (630 rush yards, 11 rush TDs) and James Maye (four rush yards, 387 receiving yards, one TD) have gotten a multitude of touches recently.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Miami (OH), ATS Winner: Miami (OH), O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Miami (OH) offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Louisiana has lost 10.
  • The Miami (OH) defense has sacked opposing QBs 38 times this year. Louisiana has recorded just 29 sacks.
  • Louisiana has averaged 5.7 yards per carry across its past three contests and 5.1 over its last two.
  • Miami (OH) has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 2.9 over its last two.
  • Miami (OH) has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a -14-point defeat to Ball State on November 29th accounting for its lone loss over that stretch.