A low-scoring game should be expected when the Evansville Aces (11-6, 1-3 MVC) and the Missouri State Bears (13-4, 3-1 MVC) go head-to-head at Ford Center. Missouri State opened as a 2.5-point favorite, while the games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 124.5 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018.
Missouri State Bears vs. Evansville Aces Free Preview
The Bears lost to the Illinois State Redbirds in their last contest, 72-68. James Miller had a solid game for Missouri State, finishing with 16 points and 11 rebounds. Illinois State had a turnover percentage of 8.1 (better than their season average of 16.2). Missouri State, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.6 vs. 22.9).
In the Aces last matchup, they thoroughly outplayed the Bradley Braves, 68-44. Evansville was led by Dru Smith, who finished with 14 points and six assists. Evansville dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 38.5 (above their season average of 27.8) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.569 (above their season average of 0.531). Bradley recorded marks of 19.4 and 0.384, respectively, for those same stats.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Evansville currently ranks 345th in possessions per game (64.6) and Missouri State is 327th (66.4). Additionally, the Bears are among the NCAA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 19th in offensive rebounding percentage (36.0 percent). The Aces, meanwhile, rank 40th at securing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 75.1 percent.
Games involving these teams tend to finish under the O/U total. Missouri State games have gone under 64.3 percent of the time, while Evansville games have gone under 76.9 percent of the time. The Bears hold the significant advantage straight up (SU) (13-4 vs. 11-6), but the Aces have the better against the spread (ATS) record (9-4 vs. 8-6).
Alize Johnson has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Missouri State, averaging 16.0 points and 12.8 rebounds per game.
This is the first time these teams will battle this year. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, the Aces won 74-66. The Aces dominated every stat category in the game. They had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 7.4 and a great free throw rate of 0.288. The Bears recorded marks of 15.8 and 0.212, respectively, for those same stats.
Missouri State Bears at Evansville Aces ATS Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Missouri State, ATS Winner – Missouri State, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Bears rank 201st in three pointers attempted per game (19.4) while the Aces rank 265th (13.4).
- Missouri State ranks 53rd in blocks per game (4.4) while Evansville ranks 112th in blocks allowed per game (4.1).
- On the road, Missouri State is 5-4 ATS with 5 unders and 4 overs.
- At home, Evansville is 4-2 ATS with 4 unders and 2 overs.
- Missouri State ranks 12th in rebounds per game (41.4) while Evansville ranks 222nd (32.9).
- The Bears rank 40th in steals allowed per game (5.4) while the Aces rank 161st (7.8).
- Missouri State ranks 12th in assists allowed per game (10.1) while Evansville ranks 105th (13.1).
Betting Trends:
- Evansville is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Missouri State is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Aces have been outscored by an average of 11.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Evansville has defeated opponents by an average of 4.1 points.
- During their last five games, the Bears have scored an average of 65.4 points per game (6.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 57.2 points per game (4.8 below their season average).
