Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Louisville Cardinals – 12/30/2019 Free Pick

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In the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are favorites as they prepare to battle the Louisville Cardinals. This afternoon game starts at 4:00 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Louisville Cardinals

Louisville is the underdog in this matchup and is currently being given 3.5 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -175 moneyline odds while the Cardinals are +155. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 62 points, and if one squad finds paydirt early, it’ll likely result in a reasonable live betting scenario.

Sharp bettors are siding with the Cards. The opening line was 5.5, while the game’s O/U hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 62.

The Bulldogs are 5-7 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.3 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-6.

The Cardinals have gained 3.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 7-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-5.

The Bulldogs are 6-6 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Cardinals are 7-5 SU.

The Bulldogs just got a 21-20 win over Ole Miss on November 28. The passing game was sharp as Garrett Shrader completed 10 passes on 14 attempts for just 108 yards. Kylin Hill (132 rushing yards on 27 attempts) and the signal-caller Shrader (19 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) mounted the ground attack. Deddrick Thomas (four receptions, 49 yards) and JaVonta Payton (one catch, 11 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Back on November 30, Kentucky knocked off this Louisville crew by a score of 45-13. The Cards defense allowed the Wildcats to kill the clock by rushing for 517 yards on 40 attempts, including six rush TDs. Lynn Bowden Jr. shredded the defense, putting up 284 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 22 attempts for Kentucky. As a group, the Cards collectively completed 10-of-19 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Macale Cunningham went six-for-11 for 78 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Evan Conley was four-of-eight for 31 yards. Javian Hawkins (142 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Cunningham (27 yards on 11 carries) led the running game while Chatarius Atwell (four receptions, 57 yards, one TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (three catches, 36 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Mississippi State has run the ball on 63 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisville has an overall rush percentage of 65.4 percent. The Bulldogs have run for 226.9 yards per game and have 25 scores on the ground this year. The Cards are logging 214.1 rush yards per game and have 22 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Bulldogs may hold an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their running backs has produced 5.5 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.3 to opponents. The Cardinals have ran for 4.9 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.5 to opponents.

The Bulldogs offensive scheme has logged 176 yards per game through the air overall and has 17 passing scores so far. The Cards have recorded 228 pass yards per outing and have 29 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Mississippi State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 148.6 yards and throw for 241.3 yards per game. The Louisville D has given up 235.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 211.0 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bulldogs have given up an ANY/A of 7.30 to opposing QBs, while the Cards are allowing an ANY/A of 7.27.

Cunningham likely has the edge over Tommy Stevens in this matchup. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 9.80 for the season and 10.00 over his last two games while Stevens’ ANY/A is 5.54 and 7.14 over his last two.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Louisville Cardinals Free Prediction

SU Winner: Mississippi State, ATS Winner: Mississippi State, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • The O/U for Mississippi State’s previous game was set at 59. The under cashed in the team’s 21-20 win over Ole Miss.
  • As a team, Mississippi State has rushed for 6.4 yards per attempt over its past three games and 6.9 over its last two.
  • Louisville has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.3 over its last two.
  • The Louisville offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Mississippi State has lost 11.
  • In its last three matchups, Mississippi State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Louisville’s last outing was set at 52. The over cashed in the team’s 45-13 loss to Kentucky.
  • In its last three games, Louisville is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Bulldogs offense has recorded three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cardinals have put up 17 such plays.
  • The Mississippi State defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Louisville has given up 11 such plays.
  • The Mississippi State offense has created 27 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Louisville has created 31 such runs.
  • The Bulldogs defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Cardinals have given up 24 such runs.
  • The Louisville D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. Mississippi State has recorded 22 sacks.