Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks – 11/2/2019 Free Betting Pick

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The Razorbacks of Arkansas (+7) are gearing up to welcome their conference nemesis Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7) to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on SEC Network and kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 7 points in this Saturday SEC matchup. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently need to put down $300 in order to net $100 back on the Bulldogs (-300). The Razorbacks are getting +220 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points, and it appears that there should be some good live betting opportunities in this showdown.

The game’s total has swung higher after originally being set at 55.5. The opening line has yet to change.

The hapless Bulldogs are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 5.5 units this season. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-3.

The Razorbacks are down 2.0 units this year. The team is 2-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-6.

The Bulldogs have gone 3-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against conference opponents. The Razorbacks are 2-6 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play.

The Bulldogs are looking to bounce back after a 49-30 defeat to Texas A&M last week. The passing game could’ve been more effective as Garrett Shrader completed only 13-of-30 passes for 194 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Kylin Hill (150 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Shrader (64 yards on 14 carries) led the ground attack in the loss. Isaiah Zuber (three receptions, 58 yards, two TDs) and Deddrick Thomas (three catches, 43 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Arkansas most-recently dropped an ugly 48-7 game to Alabama. The defensive unit allowed the Crimson Tide to rush for 179 yards on 38 attempts, including two rush TDs. Jerry Jeudy had a good showing, posting 103 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches for Alabama. As a group, the Razorbacks collectively completed 11-of-26 passes for 107 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Nick Starkel went five-for-19 for 58 yards and three interceptions while John Stephen Jones was six-of-seven for 49 yards and one touchdown. Rakeem Boyd (50 rushing yards on 12 attempts) handled the ground game in the defeat while Cheyenne O’Grady (four receptions, 13 yards, one TD) and Boyd (four catches, 55 yards) led the receiving corps.

Mississippi State’s run the ball on 60.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Arkansas has an overall rush percentage of 45.5 percent. The Bulldogs have produced 186.6 rush yards/game (including 164.2 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 14 scores via handoffs this year. The Razorbacks are putting up 131.3 rush yards per game (100 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers are any indication, then the Bulldogs may hold an advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has logged 4.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Razorbacks have tallied 4.2 yards per carry and allowed 4.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Bulldogs offense has averaged 192.1 yards in the air overall (194.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Razorbacks have put up 232.5 pass yards per game (202 in the SEC) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Mississippi State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 159.1 yards and pass for 243.1 yards per game. The Arkansas defense has given up 227.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 191.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Razorbacks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.29 to opposing QBs, while the Bulldogs have given up a 7.97 ANY/A.

Offensively, Shrader has put up 784 passing yards this year, and has completed 54 percent of his 108 attempts with six passing scores and three interceptions. Shrader has a 5.96 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.74 over the last two games.

On the other sideline, Ben Hicks has managed to complete 60-of-119 passes for 692 yards, two TDs and one INT. Hicks’ ANY/A stands at 4.90 for the year and 3.45 across his last two games.

These two teams met last year with the final result being a 52-6 win for Mississippi State.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Arkansas, ATS Winner: Arkansas, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Bulldogs offense has recorded one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Razorbacks have put up six such plays.
  • The Mississippi State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Arkansas has given up six such plays.
  • The Mississippi State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Arkansas has created seven such runs.
  • The Bulldogs defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Razorbacks have given up 21 such runs.
  • The Arkansas defensive unit has notched 18 sacks on the year while Mississippi State has 13.
  • Mississippi State, as a team, has produced 4.1 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.5 over its last two.
  • Arkansas has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 2.7 over its last two.
  • Over its last three games, Arkansas is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Mississippi State’s last game going into it was 49.5. The over cashed in the team’s 49-30 loss to Texas A&M.
  • Over its last three matchups, Mississippi State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Arkansas’ last outing going into it was 56. The under cashed in the team’s 48-7 loss to Alabama.
  • Mississippi State has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 15-point victory over Kentucky on September 21st representing the only win over that stretch.
  • Arkansas has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a 21-point win over Colorado State on September 14th representing its only victory over that stretch.