Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Prediction 02/05/19

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The NBA’s top scoring defense will be a 1.5-point underdog at home in FedExForum, when the Memphis Grizzlies (21-33) challenge the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-27). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 203.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Odds

The last time the Grizzlies played, they defeated the New York Knicks, 96-84, comfortably covering as 2.5-point favorites. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, were topped by the Denver Nuggets, 107-106, and failed to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The Memphis game finished 19.5 points under the projected point total of 199.5, while the Minnesota game finished 9 points under the projected point total of 222.

The Grizzlies had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 6.6 (better than their season average of 12.7) and held the Knicks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.3 (below their season average of 22.6). Minnesota, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (7.7 vs. 9.6). Mike Conley had a good game for Memphis, recording 25 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Meanwhile, Minnesota rallied around Karl-Anthony Towns, who put up 31 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists.

The Timberwolves evened the season series at one with a 99-97 victory in their most recent contest. Conley scored a game-high 26 points. Minnesota had a much better turnover percentage (8.7 vs. 15.7). Memphis, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (31.8 vs. 22.9). The two teams combined to score 196 points, which was under the projected point total of 206.5, and Minnesota was unable to cover as a 3-point favorite.

Vegas is extremely accurate when predicting totals of Timberwolves games, with an even split between overs and unders. Minnesota comes into the game with records of 25-27 straight up (SU) and 26-26 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Grizzlies’ 54 games, 34 have finished under the total. Further, Memphis owns records of 21-33 SU and 23-30-1 ATS.

This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Memphis. Memphis ranks 20th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 13.7 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Minnesota forces the eighth-most turnovers in the league (14.5 percent).

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while the Grizzlies rank 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
  • Minnesota ranks second in second chance points per game (15.4) while Memphis ranks 26th (9.9).
  • The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.3) while the Grizzlies rank 13th (7.6).
  • Memphis ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.1) while Minnesota ranks 13th (48.2).
  • Minnesota averages 12.8 fast break points per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Memphis ranks 22nd in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
  • The Grizzlies average 5.8 blocks per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 27th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
  • The Timberwolves rank 17th in rebounds per game (44.8) while the Grizzlies rank 28th (40.3).
  • Minnesota ranks 23rd in three pointers attempted per game (29.1) while Memphis ranks 25th (27.4).
  • Memphis ranks fifth in assists allowed per game (22.7) while Minnesota ranks 26th (25.8).
  • In games where they allow less than 100 points, Minnesota is 10-0 and Memphis is 12-6.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Grizzlies are 13-11 and the Timberwolves are 24-21.
  • Minnesota is 12-13 ATS on the road, while Memphis is 12-14 ATS at home.
  • Of the Timberwolves’ 25 road games, they have 14 unders and 11 overs.
  • Of the Grizzlies’ 26 home games, they have 15 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Minnesota and Memphis have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 2-3.
  • The Grizzlies have outscored opponents by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Memphis has lost by an average of 3.0 points.
  • During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 107.6 points per game (3.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.0 points per game (3.2 below their season average).