Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction 03/12/19

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The Minnesota Timberwolves (32-35) and the Denver Nuggets (43-22) clash at Pepsi Center. The Timberwolves can snap a five-game road losing streak. The game can be seen on TNT at 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 12, 2019.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds

In the Timberwolves’ last outing, they covered the 6.5-point spread against the New York Knicks, 103-92. The Nuggets, meanwhile, were defeated by the Golden State Warriors, 122-105, and were not able to cover as 7-point underdogs. The Minnesota game finished 28.5 points under the projected point total of 223.5, while the Denver game finished 7.5 points under the projected point total of 234.5.

Minnesota dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a superb turnover percentage of 9.9 (better than their season average of 10.9) and a free throw rate of 0.106 (matching their season average). New York was 15.6 and 0.093, respectively, for those same stats. Denver, on the other hand, did an excellent job of getting and making free throws (27-35; 77.1 percent). Nikola Jokic had a good game for Denver, contributing 16 points and six rebounds. Jeff Teague, meanwhile played a key role for Minnesota with 20 points and 10 assists.

The Nuggets have won both contests against the Timberwolves this season. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to score 213 points, which was under the projected point total of 222. Denver won 107-106, covering as a 2-point underdog. Denver won the rebounding battle. The Nuggets had 15 offensive rebounds and 48 total rebounds, while the Timberwolves had eight and 41, respectively. In the loss, Karl-Anthony Towns had a double-double with 31 points and 12 rebounds.

Oddsmakers tend to set the total low when the Timberwolves are involved, as 38 of their 67 contests have finished over the projected point total. Minnesota comes into the contest with records of 32-35 straight up (SU) and 34-33 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Minnesota, Nuggets games have typically gone under the total (55.4 percent). Moreover, Denver owns records of 43-22 SU and 35-30 ATS.

The productive offense of Denver (fifth in the league with an offensive efficiency of 111.1) will clash against the bottom-tier defense of Minnesota (22nd in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 109.8). The Nuggets should have the edge on that end of the court.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets ATS Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (31.3) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (28.6).
  • Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.6) while Minnesota ranks 28th in second chance points allowed per game (14.7).
  • The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Nuggets rank 14th (7.5).
  • Minnesota ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.2) while Denver ranks 25th (4.5).
  • Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.1) while Minnesota ranks 15th (13.8).
  • The Nuggets average 27.6 assists per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 25th in assists allowed per game (25.6).
  • The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.0) while the Timberwolves rank 15th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.4).
  • Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while Minnesota ranks 18th (45.1).
  • In games where they allow below 100 points, Minnesota is 11-0 and Denver is 20-1.
  • The Timberwolves are 31-29 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 41-17.
  • Denver is 22-11 ATS at home, while Minnesota is 15-19 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Timberwolves’ 34 road games, they have 19 overs and 15 unders.
  • The Nuggets have 17 overs and 16 unders in 33 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Minnesota and Denver are both 2-3 ATS.
  • The Timberwolves have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Nuggets have 5 unders
  • During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 120.8 points per game (7.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 121.6 points per game (8.5 above their season average).
  • The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 3.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 4.7 points.