Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction 02/23/20

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The Denver Nuggets (38-18) welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves (16-38) to Pepsi Center. The Timberwolves are 12.5-point underdogs and will try to end a seven-game road losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 225.5 points and it will air on NBATV at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 23, 2020.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

Both teams did not cover as underdogs in their last matchup. The Timberwolves (8.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Boston Celtics, 127-117, while the Nuggets (1.5-point underdogs) fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 113-101. The Minnesota game finished 18.5 points over the projected point total of 225.5, while the Denver game went 2 points under the projected point total of 216.

Minnesota had a turnover percentage of 7.1 (better than their season average of 12.7) while Denver had a better effective field goal percentage (0.519 vs. 0.511). Nikola Jokic played well for Denver with 32 points, seven rebounds and five assists. D’Angelo Russell had a good game for Minnesota, contributing 18 points, 13 assists and six rebounds.

The Nuggets have won all three matchups against the Timberwolves this year. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 207 points, which was under the projected point total of 221. Denver won 107-100, covering as a 4-point underdog. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.5 vs. 21.6). Minnesota, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (8.5 vs. 12.0). In the loss, Karl-Anthony Towns led all scorers on the team with 28 points.

Of the Timberwolves’ 54 games, 30 have finished over the projected point total. Minnesota holds records of 16-38 straight up (SU) and 18-34-2 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Minnesota, games featuring the Nuggets have typically finished under the total (55.4 percent). Denver is 38-18 SU, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (25-25-6 ATS).

Denver should have an edge on the offensive glass in this contest. The Nuggets rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (24.9 percent), while Minnesota ranks 19th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent). Contrasting tempos will be on display in this meeting. The fast-breaking Timberwolves rank second in possessions per game, while the more methodical Nuggets rank 28th.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets ATS Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves rank third in steals per game (8.6) while the Nuggets rank 11th (8.0).
  • Minnesota ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (39.7) while Denver ranks 26th (30.5).
  • The Timberwolves rank fourth in blocks per game (6.0) while the Nuggets rank 20th (4.7).
  • Denver ranks fifth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while Minnesota ranks 20th (13.4).
  • Denver averages 49.0 points in the paint per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Minnesota ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (49.7).
  • The Nuggets rank sixth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while the Timberwolves rank 29th (47.6).
  • The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.3) while the Timberwolves rank 19th (23.7).
  • Denver ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.5) while Minnesota ranks 26th (10.4).
  • Denver ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Minnesota ranks 24th (17.7).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Minnesota is 2-1 and Denver is 13-1.
  • In games where they score more than 100 points, the Timberwolves are 15-31 and the Nuggets are 35-13.
  • Denver is 12-13-3 ATS at home, while Minnesota is 12-13-1 ATS on the road.
  • The Timberwolves have 15 overs and 11 unders in 26 road games.
  • Of the Nuggets’ 28 home games, they have 16 unders and 12 overs.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Minnesota has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (1.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.2 points per game (4.4 above their season average).
  • The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.6, down from 3.7 for the season.