It will be a matchup between two outstanding offenses when the Portland Trail Blazers (6-3) challenge the Minnesota Timberwolves (4-5) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Action gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 4, 2018, and can be seen on Fox Sports – North.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers ATS Odds
Both teams fell in their last outing. The Timberwolves (10.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Golden State Warriors, 116-99, while the Trail Blazers (8-point favorites) fell to the Los Angeles Lakers, 114-110. The Minnesota game went 28.5 points under the projected point total of 243.5, while the Portland game finished 5.5 points under the projected point total of 229.5.
Minnesota had a turnover percentage of 4.5 (better than their season average of 11.4) while Portland forced Los Angeles into a turnover percentage of 17.1 (above their season average of 12.1). Damian Lillard fueled Portland with 30 points. Karl-Anthony Towns, meanwhile had a solid performance for Minnesota, contributing 13 points and 11 rebounds.
This was a highly contested series last year. Each won two of the four games played against each other last season. The Trail Blazers won the most recent game 108-99. The Trail Blazers’ 6.9 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Timberwolves, who had a rate of 13.7.
Vegas is known to set the total low when the Timberwolves are involved, as five of their nine games have ended over the projected point total. Minnesota heads into the contest with records of 4-5 straight up (SU) and 4-5 against the spread (ATS).
Games featuring the Trail Blazers also have typically gone over the total (75.0 percent). Further, Portland owns records of 6-3 SU and 6-2 ATS.
The high-powered offense of Portland will face off against the bottom-tier defense of Minnesota. Dating back to last season, the Trail Blazers rank third in offensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves are 28th in defensive efficiency. The Trail Blazers should have the advantage on that side of the ball. Ball security should be an advantage for the Timberwolves. They rank 2nd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.0 percent), while the Trail Blazers have forced the fewest turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 12.5 percent).
Timberwolves at Trail Blazers Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
- The Trail Blazers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while the Timberwolves rank 21st (15.3).
- Portland ranks first in rebounds per game (45.8) while Minnesota ranks last in rebounds allowed per game (42.6).
- The Timberwolves rank third in fast break points per game (10.3) while the Trail Blazers rank 25th in fast break points allowed per game (11.8).
- Portland averages 28.6 three pointers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 29th in three pointers allowed per game (30.7).
- Portland averages 43.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.2).
- The Timberwolves average 4.4 blocks per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Trail Blazers rank last in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
- The Timberwolves average 13.3 second chance points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Trail Blazers rank 28th in second chance points allowed per game (11.9).
- Portland ranks 11th in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Minnesota ranks 27th (23.9).
- Minnesota ranks first in steals per game (8.3) while Portland ranks 27th (6.9).
- In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Portland is 28-8 and Minnesota is 20-4.
- In games where they reach 100 points, the Trail Blazers are 50-24 and the Timberwolves are 49-28.
