Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat Free Prediction 02/26/20

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The Minnesota Timberwolves (16-40) and the Miami Heat (36-21) battle at AmericanAirlines Arena. The Timberwolves will try to put an end to their five-game losing streak. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – North.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

Both teams fell in their last matchup. The Timberwolves (14-point underdogs) were defeated by the Dallas Mavericks, 139-123, while the Heat (6.5-point favorites) fell to the Cleveland Cavaliers, 125-119. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Minnesota game finished 23 points over the projected point total of 239, while the Miami game finished 22.5 points over the projected point total of 221.5.

Minnesota did an excellent job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (24-34; 70.6 percent) while Miami had a better effective field goal percentage (0.542 vs. 0.510). Miami rallied around Bam Adebayo, who put up 22 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists. D’Angelo Russell played well for Minnesota, putting up 29 points and five assists.

In their first matchup this season, Karl-Anthony Towns led the Timberwolves to a 116-109 victory. He registered a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds. Minnesota covered as a 7-point favorite and the two teams combined for 225 points, which was just over the projected point total of 224.5. Getting to the free throw line was one of Minnesota’s biggest advantages. They made 33 trips to the line, while Miami went just 15 times.

Games including the Timberwolves have a tendency to go over the total (57.1 percent). Minnesota heads into the game with records of 16-40 straight up (SU) and 19-35-2 against the spread (ATS).

Heat games also tend to go over the total (59.6 percent). Further, Miami owns records of 36-21 SU and 29-26-2 ATS.

The Timberwolves’ Malik Beasley has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 22 points,6.4 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Jae Crowder has averaged 16 points,6.0 rebounds,2.2 steals during that same time frame for the Heat.

The aggressive Miami offense seems poised to dominate from the free throw line. The Heat currently rank second in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.231, while Minnesota is among the league’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 23rd-ranked FTA rate of 0.220).

Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat Betting Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves rank 19th in points off turnovers per game (16.2) while the Heat rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.0).
  • Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (42.4) while Minnesota ranks 29th (47.5).
  • The Timberwolves rank eighth in second chance points per game (14.1) while the Heat rank 26th (11.9).
  • Minnesota ranks 12th in points in the paint per game (48.5) while Miami ranks 27th (44.7).
  • Minnesota ranks sixth in steals per game (8.5) while Miami ranks 13th in steals allowed per game (7.6).
  • The Timberwolves rank third in three pointers attempted per game (39.8) while the Heat rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.7).
  • The Heat rank second in fast break points allowed per game (11.6) while the Timberwolves rank 12th (12.9).
  • Miami ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while Minnesota ranks 24th (5.6).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Minnesota is 2-1 and Miami is 7-1.
  • When scoring more than 100 points, the Timberwolves are 15-33 and the Heat are 35-15.
  • Minnesota is 13-14-1 ATS on the road, while Miami is 17-8-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 17 of the Timberwolves’ 28 road games, while 17 of the Heat’s 26 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Minnesota and Miami have both had 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Heat are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.0, down from 3.3 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 118.0 points per game (5.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 129.2 points per game (12.4 above their season average).