The Minnesota Timberwolves (32-37) visit Toyota Center to challenge the Houston Rockets (43-26). The Timberwolves can end a seven-game road losing streak. The game can be seen on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 17, 2019.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets ATS Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last game. The Rockets (12-point favorites) beat the Phoenix Suns, 108-102, while the Timberwolves (8.5-point underdogs) fell to the Utah Jazz, 120-100. The Houston game went 16 points under the projected point total of 226, while the Minnesota game finished 0.5 points under the projected point total of 220.5.
Houston played a nearly flawless game. They had a turnover percentage of 11.8 (worse than their season average of 11.7) and a free throw rate of 0.301 (above their season average of 0.228). Phoenix was 17.4 and 0.213, respectively, for those same stats. Minnesota, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (10.1 vs. 9.8). Houston’s James Harden played well, contributing 41 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns, meanwhile was a key piece for Minnesota with 26 points and 12 rebounds.
In their two matchups this year, the Timberwolves have won both. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 232 points, just over the projected point total of 231. Minnesota won 121-111, covering as a 4-point underdog. The Timberwolves’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Rockets. Minnesota had a rate of 35.1, while Houston posted a mark of 27.7. Jeff Teague recorded a double-double with 27 points and 12 assists.
Of the Timberwolves’ 69 games, 39 have finished over the projected point total. Minnesota comes into the contest with records of 32-37 straight up (SU) and 34-35 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Rockets games, with 35 overs compared to 33 unders. Houston has a respectable 43-26 SU record, but they struggle covering the spread (31-36-2 ATS).
The high-powered offense of Houston (second in the league with an offensive efficiency of 112.3) will face off against the bottom-tier defense of Minnesota (23rd in the league with a defensive efficiency of 110.3). The Rockets should have the edge on that end of the court. Furthermore, the Timberwolves, who rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (25.5 percent), will battle against the Rockets, who rank 28th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.2 percent).
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets ATS Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Timberwolves average 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 10th in the league. The Rockets rank 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (44.6) while Minnesota ranks 24th (28.5).
- The Timberwolves average 15.5 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. The Rockets rank 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
- Houston ranks ninth in assists allowed per game (23.4) while Minnesota ranks 26th (25.9).
- Minnesota ranks 17th in rebounds per game (45.0) while Houston ranks 28th (41.6).
- The Timberwolves rank ninth in points in the paint per game (50.3) while the Rockets rank last (42.6).
- The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Rockets rank 15th (7.6).
- Houston ranks ninth in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while Minnesota ranks 27th (5.7).
- When allowing less than 100 points, Minnesota is 11-0 and Houston is 12-2.
- The Timberwolves are 31-31 when they score above 100 points, while the Rockets are 40-18.
- Minnesota is 15-21 ATS on the road, while Houston is 18-16-1 ATS at home.
- The Timberwolves have 20 overs and 16 unders in 36 road games.
- The Rockets have 21 overs and 14 unders in 35 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Rockets are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Houston has 4 unders and 1 over, while Minnesota has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 2.8 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (1.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 121.2 points per game (7.7 above their season average).
