The No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers (22-13, 11-12 Big 10), 10-point underdogs, square off with the No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (29-6, 19-4 Big 10) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament at Wells Fargo Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 142 points and it gets underway at 7:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 23, 2019.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds
In the First Round, the Golden Gophers topped the No. 7 Louisville Cardinals, 86-76, as 5-point underdogs. The Spartans, meanwhile, topped the No. 15 Bradley Braves,76-65, but failed to cover as 18-point favorites. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Minnesota game went 24 points over the projected point total of 138, while the Michigan State game finished 7 points over the projected point total of 134.
Minnesota dominated every facet of the game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.293 (above their season average of 0.286) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.595 (above their season average of 0.483). For those same stats, Louisville had marks of 0.254 and 0.517, respectively. The Spartans, on the other hand, held the Braves to an offensive rebounding percentage of 9.7 (below their season average of 27.7) and had a free throw rate of 0.463 (above their season average of 0.262). Xavier Tillman played well for Michigan State with 16 points and 11 rebounds. Minnesota rallied around Gabe Kalscheur, who contributed 24 points and eight rebounds.
Just over half of the Golden Gophers’ games have finished under the total. Minnesota heads into the game with records of 22-13 straight up (SU) and 18-17 against the spread (ATS).
Spartans games tend to go under the total (57.1 percent). Moreover, Michigan State is 29-6 SU and 24-11 ATS.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Michigan State should have a significant advantage. The Spartans defense ranks sixth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.439), while the Minnesota offense is ranked 280th in effective field goal percentage (0.487). Moreover, the Golden Gophers are among the country’s best at getting to the line, ranking 23rd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.286). The Spartans, however, rank 38th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.189).
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan State Spartans ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Michigan State, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Michigan State averages 5.5 blocks per game, which ranks fifth in the country. Minnesota ranks 217th in blocks allowed per game (4.4).
- The Spartans rank 198th in three pointers attempted per game (21.5) while the Golden Gophers rank 310th (16.6).
- Michigan State ranks 227th in steals per game (5.2) while Minnesota ranks 251st (4.7).
- The Spartans rank third in assists per game (18.7) while the Golden Gophers rank 141st in assists allowed per game (12.9).
- Michigan State ranks 10th in rebounds per game (40.8) while Minnesota ranks 134th in rebounds allowed per game (34.5).
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Minnesota and Michigan State are both 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- During their last five games, the Golden Gophers have scored an average of 69.4 points per game (1.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 73.2 points per game (3.8 above their season average).
- The Spartans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.4, down from 13.2 for the season.
