The No. 9 Purdue Boilermakers (25-5, 14-3 Big 10) and Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-15, 4-13 Big 10) will square off at Mackey Arena to wrap up the regular season. Purdue opened as an 18-point favorite, while the games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 150.5 points. Action gets underway at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 25, 2018.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers ATS Preview
The last time the Golden Gophers played, they beat the Iowa Hawkeyes, 86-82. Nate Mason was the games high scorer with 33 points on 11-for-19 shooting. The Golden Gophers had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.377 (above their season average of 0.245) and had a turnover percentage of 10.5 (better than their season average of 13.4).
The Boilermakers come in on a high note after defeating the Illinois Fighting Illini in their last matchup, 93-86. With 40 points on 11-for-19 shooting, Carsen Edwards was the top scorer from either team. Purdue dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.542 (above their season average of 0.265) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.6 (above their season average of 27.5). Illinois was 0.121 and 20.6, respectively, for those same stats.
Purdue could have their way on defense as they face off against one of the nations worst offenses. The Boilermakers rank 20th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.466), while Minnesota is 282nd in effective field goal percentage (0.490).
Of Minnesota’s 29 games that accepted bets, 15 have finished over the projected point total, while 15 of Purdue’s 29 games have finished under the O/U total. The Boilermakers come into this game with considerably better straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 25-5 SU and 15-14 ATS, while the Golden Gophers are 15-15 SU and 11-18 ATS.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Golden Gophers, it’s been Mason, who has averaged 19.8 points and 3.6 assists, while the Boilermakers have gotten great contributions from Edwards (20.8 points and 1.4 steals).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined for 128 points, well under the projected point total of 153. The Boilermakers won 81-47, covering as 8.5-point favorites. The Boilermakers offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Golden Gophers. Purdue had a rate of 31.3, while Minnesota posted a mark of 16.3. Vincent Edwards was the games leading scorer with 25 points.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Odds Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Purdue, ATS Winner – Minnesota, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Boilermakers average 22.8 three pointers per game, which ranks 119th in the NCAA. The Golden Gophers rank 175th in three pointers allowed per game (22.7).
- Purdue is 40th in the NCAA with 5.3 steals allowed per game while Minnesota is 58th with 5.5 steals allowed per game.
- On the road, Minnesota is 5-8 ATS with 7 unders and 6 overs.
- Purdue is 8-7 ATS at home with 8 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
- Purdue averages 17.1 assists per game, which ranks 12th in the nation. Minnesota ranks 259th in assists allowed per game (16.0).
- The Boilermakers rank 50th in rebounds allowed per game (32.5) while the Golden Gophers rank 256th (38.0).
- Purdue averages 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks 18th in the NCAA. Minnesota ranks 203rd in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
Betting Trends:
- Purdue is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Boilermakers average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 16.6 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Golden Gophers have scored an average of 69.4 points per game (7.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 82.6 points per game (7.5 above their season average).
