Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction 12/22/18

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The league’s top scoring team will be a 2.5-point favorite on the road at AmericanAirlines Arena, when the Milwaukee Bucks (22-9) face off with the Miami Heat (14-16). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 215.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 22, 2018.

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Heat (3-point underdogs) defeated the Houston Rockets 101-99, while the Bucks (8.5-point underdog) beat the Boston Celtics 120-107. The Miami game finished 10 points under the projected point total of 210, while the Milwaukee game went 3 points under the projected point total of 230.

The Bucks, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.3, had a great mark of 28.9 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.613 (above their season average of 0.553). Miami, meanwhile, out-rebounded Houston. The Heat had 20 offensive rebounds and 61 total rebounds, while the Rockets had eight and 41, respectively. Josh Richardson played well for Miami, contributing 22 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo was a key piece for Milwaukee with 30 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

The Heat dominated this series last year, taking all three games. In the last game, Miami won 91-85. Miami’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The Heat had more offensive rebounds (13 vs. two), defensive rebounds (38 vs. 35) and total rebounds (51 vs. 37). This is the first time these teams will battle this year.

Bucks games have finished over the projected point total 53.3 percent of the time. Milwaukee holds records of 22-9 straight up (SU) and 15-14-1 against the spread (ATS).

Similarly to Milwaukee, a little over half of Heat games have finished over the O/U total. Further, Miami is 14-16 SU and 16-14 ATS.

The ineffective offense of Miami will clash against the elite defense of Milwaukee. The Heat currently rank 26th in offensive efficiency, while the Bucks are fourth in defensive efficiency. The Bucks should have the advantage on that side of the ball.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Bucks rank 1 in fast break points allowed per game (9.67741935483871) while the Heat rank 10 (12.4).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 28th (18.8).
  • The Bucks rank fourth in blocks per game (5.8) while the Heat rank 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.8).
  • Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (22.0) while Milwaukee ranks 21st (24.4).
  • Milwaukee ranks 1 in rebounds per game (50) while Miami ranks 16 in rebounds allowed per game (45.3).
  • The Bucks rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while the Heat rank 26th (14.9).
  • The Bucks rank 3 in points in the paint per game (54.45161290322581) while the Heat rank 20 (46.53333333333333).
  • Miami ranks fifth in three pointers attempted per game (34.1) while Milwaukee ranks 29th in three pointers allowed per game (36.0).
  • In games where they allow below 100 points, Milwaukee is 6-0 and Miami is 8-1.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Bucks are 22-7 and the Heat are 13-11.
  • Milwaukee is 5-7-1 ATS on the road, while Miami is 6-9 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 7 of the Bucks’ 13 road games, while 8 of the Heat’s 15 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Milwaukee and Miami have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Bucks are 2-2-1.
  • The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.8, up from 0.8 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 112.2 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (0.7 below their season average).