Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Prediction 11/16/19

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The NBA’s top scoring team will be 5-point favorites on the road at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, when the Milwaukee Bucks (8-3) challenge the Indiana Pacers (7-5). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 227.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports Midwest – Indiana at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 16, 2019.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Odds

Neither team was able to cover in their last game. The Bucks (11.5-point favorites) defeated the Chicago Bulls, 124-115, while the Pacers (1.5-point underdogs) fell to the Houston Rockets, 111-102. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Milwaukee game went 10.5 points over the projected point total of 228.5, while the Indiana game went 1 point over the projected point total of 212.

Milwaukee dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.386 (above their season average of 0.200) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.7 (above their season average of 19.1). For those same stats, Chicago recorded marks of 0.226 and 19.6, respectively. Indiana, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.500 vs. 0.483). Indiana’s Domantas Sabonis had a solid performance, contributing 18 points and 13 rebounds. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo played a pivotal role for Milwaukee with 38 points and 16 rebounds.

The Bucks took this series last year, winning three out of four games. In the last game, Milwaukee won 117-98. The Bucks’ 19.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Pacers, who had a mark of 12.0. This is the first time these teams will meet this year.

Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Bucks are involved, as seven of their 11 games have ended over the projected point total. Milwaukee comes into the game with records of 8-3 straight up (SU) and 5-6 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Milwaukee, just over half of Pacers games have finished under the O/U total. Additionally, Indiana is 7-5 SU and 5-4-2 ATS.

Indiana could put on a ball-control clinic in this matchup. Indiana ranks fifth in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.0 percent), while Milwaukee forces the seventh-fewest turnovers (13.8 percent). Opposite tempos will be on display in this matchup. The up-and-down Bucks rank fourth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Pacers rank 25th.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pacers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.3) while the Bucks rank 10th (17.4).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Indiana ranks 29th (25.0).
  • The Bucks rank fifth in blocks per game (5.9) while the Pacers rank 14th (5.2).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (38.0) while Indiana ranks 10th (45.7).
  • Indiana averages 25.6 assists per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Milwaukee ranks 14th in assists allowed per game (23.5).
  • The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (52.3) while the Pacers rank 16th (44.6).
  • The Bucks rank second in second chance points allowed per game (10.4) while the Pacers rank 10th (12.3).
  • Indiana allows the third-fewest steals per game (6.7) while Milwaukee ranks fifth (6.9).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in fast break points per game (18.2) while Indiana ranks 15th (12.6).
  • When allowing less than 100 points, Milwaukee is 1-0 and Indiana is 3-1.
  • The Pacers are 7-3 when they reach the century mark, while the Bucks are 8-3.
  • Indiana is 3-1-2 ATS at home, while Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS on the road.
  • In 7 road games, the Bucks have 4 overs and 3 unders.
  • Of the Pacers’ 6 home games, they have 4 unders and 2 overs.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Pacers are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Bucks are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Indiana has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Milwaukee has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.0, up from 4.3 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 121.6 points per game (1.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.4 points per game (1.3 above their season average).