Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction

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The Milwaukee Bucks (41-35), 4-point underdogs, will travel to Pepsi Center to challenge the Denver Nuggets (41-35). The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223.5 points and it can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 1, 2018.

Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds

Both teams edged out their last opponent. The Nuggets defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 126-125, while the Bucks beat the Los Angeles Lakers 124-122.

The Bucks forced 18 turnovers and had a free throw rate of 0.245 (above their season average of 0.222). Meanwhile, Denver’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Oklahoma City. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.191 (matching their season average), while the Thunder posted a mark of 0.139 (below their season average of 0.192). Nikola Jokic put together a good outing for Denver with 23 points, 16 rebounds and six assists. Milwaukee, meanwhile, was lifted by Eric Bledsoe, who recorded 39 points and six assists.

It could be an error-filled game for the Denver offense. Denver ranks 24th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.5 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Milwaukee forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (14.9 percent). Additionally, the Bucks are among the leagues elite at getting to the line, ranking fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.222). The Nuggets, however, rank fifth at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents FTA rate of 0.172.

Of the Bucks 76 games, 41 have finished over the projected point total. Milwaukee heads into the contest with records of 41-35 straight up (SU) and 32-39-5 against the spread (ATS).

Games including the Nuggets have a slight tendency to go over the total (51.3 percent). Moreover, Denver owns records of 41-35 SU and 35-38-3 ATS.

The Bucks Bledsoe has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 17.8 points, 5.8 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray has averaged 19.2 points, 4.2 assists and 1.4 steals during that same time frame for the Nuggets.

In their first matchup this year, Jokic led the Nuggets to a 134-123 victory. He registered a triple-double with 30 points, 17 assists and 15 rebounds. Denver covered as a 2-point underdog and the two teams combined for 257 points, which was well over the projected point total of 214.5. Denver’s 0.694 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Milwaukee, who had a mark of 0.582.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Bucks rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Nuggets rank 16th (5.0).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while Denver ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
  • The Nuggets rank seventh in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while the Bucks rank 25th (24.7).
  • Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while Milwaukee ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in steals per game (8.8) while Denver ranks 18th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
  • The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (13.8) while the Bucks rank 27th (10.4).
  • The Bucks rank third in fast break points allowed per game (9.9) while the Nuggets rank 20th (12.8).
  • Milwaukee ranks 14th in assists per game (23.1) while Denver ranks 26th in assists allowed per game (25.0).
  • Denver ranks 10th in rebounds per game (44.3) while Milwaukee ranks last (39.4).
  • Denver is 13-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 16-5.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Bucks are 35-18 and the Nuggets are 35-25.
  • Milwaukee is 20-16-2 ATS on the road, while Denver is 19-17-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 19 of the Nuggets 37 home games, while 21 of the Bucks 38 road games have gone over.

Betting Trends:

  • In their last five games, Milwaukee and Denver are both 4-1 ATS.
  • The Bucks have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Nuggets have 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push,
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 112.4 points per game (6.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.4 points per game (2.0 above their season average).
  • The Nuggets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.8, up from 1.2 for the season.