The Houston Rockets (23-16), 1-point favorites, will try to slow down the Milwaukee Bucks (28-11) at Toyota Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 225.5 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 9, 2019.
Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets ATS Odds
Both teams covered as favorites in their last matchup. The Rockets (1-point favorites) defeated the Denver Nuggets 125-113, while the Bucks (5-point favorites) beat the Utah Jazz 114-102. The Houston game finished 22.5 points over the projected point total of 215.5, while the Milwaukee game went 7 points under the projected point total of 223.
The Bucks forced 15 turnovers and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.515 vs. 0.500). Meanwhile, Houston’s 0.355 free throw rate was their largest strength over Denver, who had a rate of 0.194. The Rockets’ mark was above their season average of 0.219. Houston’s James Harden had a solid performance, recording 32 points, 14 assists and five rebounds. Meanwhile, Milwaukee received a boost from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who finished with 30 points and 10 rebounds.
The Rockets dominated this series last year, winning both games. In the most recent contest, Houston won 110-99. Houston won the rebounding battle. The Rockets had more offensive rebounds (12 vs. six), defensive rebounds (35 vs. 32) and total rebounds (47 vs. 38). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
Games involving the Bucks have gone over the total 51.3 percent of the time. Milwaukee heads into the contest with records of 28-11 straight up (SU) and 22-16-1 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Rockets’ 39 games, 21 have finished over the total. Moreover, Houston is 23-16 SU and 20-18-1 ATS.
Harden has been solid as of late for Houston, averaging 42 points,9.4 assists,7.2 rebounds,1.4 steals,1.2 blocks over the last five games.
This showdown pits one of the NBA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Houston ranks third in offensive efficiency and Milwaukee ranks fourth in defensive efficiency. It will also be a battle of conflicting styles as the fast-breaking Bucks rank fifth in possessions per game, while the more methodical Rockets rank 28th.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Houston Rockets Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Bucks rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while the Rockets rank 14th (16.9).
- Houston averages 42.8 three pointers per game, which ranks first in the league. Milwaukee ranks last in three pointers allowed per game (35.5).
- The Bucks rank fifth in assists per game (26.5) while the Rockets rank 28th (21.3).
- Milwaukee ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (7.1) while Houston ranks 21st (8.2).
- Milwaukee ranks third in blocks per game (6.0) while Houston ranks 15th (5.2).
- The Bucks rank first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.8) while the Rockets rank 28th (52.2).
- The Bucks rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.7) while the Rockets rank 18th (13.5).
- Milwaukee ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (9.7) while Houston ranks eighth (12.3).
- Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (49.4) while Houston ranks 26th (42.0).
- Houston is 6-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 9-1.
- In games where they reach the century mark, the Rockets are 21-9 and the Bucks are 28-8.
- Houston is 12-6-1 ATS at home, while Milwaukee is 7-8-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 9 of the Bucks’ 16 road games, while 13 of the Rockets’ 19 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Milwaukee and Houston are both 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 124.8 points per game (7.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.0 points per game (2.0 above their season average).
- The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 1.5 for the season.
