The league’s top shooting defense will be 2.5-point underdogs on the road at Pepsi Center, when the Milwaukee Bucks (9-3) take on the Denver Nuggets (9-3). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 220 points and it will air on Altitude 2 Sports at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 11, 2018.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
Both teams lost a close one in their last game. The Bucks (5.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Los Angeles Clippers, 128-126, while the Nuggets (8.5-point favorites) fell to the Brooklyn Nets, 112-110. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Milwaukee game finished 11.5 points over the projected point total of 242.5, while the Denver game finished 7 points over the projected point total of 215.
Milwaukee had a better offensive rebounding percentage (25.4 vs. 21.3) while Denver had an offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 28.2). Denver was lifted by Nikola Jokic, who put up 37 points and 21 rebounds. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo had a good game for Milwaukee, contributing 27 points, 18 rebounds and five steals.
The Nuggets dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 128-125. Denver did an excellent job of getting and making free throws (37-46; 80.4 percent). Milwaukee, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (7.4 vs. 13.4). This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year.
Vegas tends to place the total low when the Bucks are playing, as eight of their 11 games have ended over the total. Milwaukee comes into the game with records of 9-3 straight up (SU) and 7-4 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Milwaukee, games involving the Nuggets have typically finished under the total (66.7 percent). Further, Denver is 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS.
Baskets could be hard to come by as two of the NBA’s best defenses go head-to-head. Denver currently ranks third in defensive efficiency (102.4) and Milwaukee is second (101.6). This game should be a matchup of opposite tempos. The up-tempo Bucks rank third in possessions per game, while the more methodical Nuggets rank 21st.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while the Nuggets rank 10th (12.4).
- Denver ranks sixth in three pointers allowed per game (29.0) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (37.2).
- The Bucks rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (40.3) while the Nuggets rank 13th (48.2).
- Denver ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (40.7) while Milwaukee ranks 12th (45.4).
- Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while Denver ranks 12th (16.6).
- The Bucks average 6.3 blocks per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (6.3).
- The Bucks rank second in assists per game (27.3) while the Nuggets rank 12th (24.3).
- Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (16.9) while Milwaukee ranks 15th (13.5).
- In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver is 5-1 and Milwaukee is 2-0.
- The Nuggets are 9-2 when they score above 100 points, while the Bucks are 9-3.
- Denver is 5-2 ATS at home, while Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 4 of the Nuggets’ 7 home games, while 3 of the Bucks’ 5 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Milwaukee and Denver are both 3-2 ATS.
- The Bucks have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Nuggets have 3 unders and 2 overs,
- The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.4, down from 12.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (4.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 97.4 points per game (4.7 below their season average).
