Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Preview

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The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to avoid losing their fourth straight game as they play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park. The game gets underway 1:05 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will showcase this NL matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (-125) is hosting this game as the favorite over Milwaukee (+115) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this afternoons game at 8.5 runs (-115 for the over and -105 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds sitting at -180 for the Brewers +1.5 runs and +160 for the Phillies -1.5.

The Phillies are 32-29 SU and 28-32 ATS. They’ve gained 3.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 9.8 units against the spread (ATS). Philadelphia has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Brewers are 38-25 SU and have gone 35-27 ATS. Overall, the teams accumulated 13.1 units for moneyline bettors and 6.2 units ATS. Milwaukee’s covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.

Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 25-31-4 so far in 2018. Brewers games have gone under 37 times, gone over 23 times and pushed on two instances.

The left-handed Brent Suter is projected to start for Milwaukee. Suter is 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA and 54 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 1.50 ERA and five strikeouts across six innings).

The Phillies are going with righty Jake Arrieta (5-3, 2.66 ERA), who’s got 44 strikeouts and 19 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.17. Arrieta made three starts against the Brewers in 2017, compiling a spotless 2-0 record with a 2.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have a 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.3 K/9.

The Philadelphia hitters have put up 4.2 runs per contest, including 2.9 per game over its last 10 games and 3.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .210/.320/.329 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

Outfielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies batters this year. Herrera is slashing .298/.361/.452 with seven home runs, 32 RBIs and 27 runs scored, and Hernandez is hitting .263 with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 41 runs and 10 steals.

For the visiting squad, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.33 K/9. The bullpen has an excellent ERA of just 2.58, along with a K/9 of 10.48.

Brewers hitters have slashed .248/.319/.409 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.4 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Milwaukee’s hitters have been led by outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, who have combined to belt 15 home runs. Cain is hitting .284/.389/.436 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs, 37 runs and 11 stolen bases, while Yelich is slashing .303/.373/.488 with eight homers, 27 RBIs, 39 runs and seven stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 13.8 units and are 29-19 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 16 of those games, as opposed to 30 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 3.3 units and are 8-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in seven of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Brewers have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • The Milwaukee defense has allowed two errors over its last five games, compared to five errors for Philadelphia over its last five.
  • The Phillies have lost six of their last seven games SU.