Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Matchup

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The struggling Cincinnati Reds will look to avoid dropping their sixth consecutive game as they play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will televise the action and the game is scheduled to get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Cincinnati (+110) is the home-team underdog to Milwaukee (-120) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 9 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at +125 for the Brewers -1.5 runs and -145 for the Reds +1.5.

The Brewers are 73-59 SU and are 67-65 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 9.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having lost 2.7 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 56-75 SU and 73-58 ATS. They’ve lost 7.3 units for moneyline bettors while earning 1.9 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Cincinnati games have a 67-60-4 over/under record in 2018. Milwaukee has an over/under record of 63-65-4.

Right-hander Junior Guerra is projected to start for the visiting Brewers. Guerra is 6-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 122 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 19 strikeouts and a 3.18 ERA against Cincinnati this year (three starts).

The Reds are going with righty Anthony DeSclafani (6-4, 4.26 ERA), who’s got 69 strikeouts and 20 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.21. DeSclafani is 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 5.68 ERA in one start against Milwaukee this year.

Cincinnati’s pitchers have given up 5.1 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 5.20, a WHIP of 1.44 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.5. The bullpen has a 4.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 7.9 K/9. In 58 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 5.54 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.07.

Cincinnati’s hitters have produced 4.5 runs per contest, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 1.8 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .201/.253/.289 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza have paced the Reds’ hitters this year. Gennett is hitting .308/.356/.484 with 19 home runs, 75 RBIs and 74 runs scored, and Peraza is batting .288 with eight homers, 42 RBIs, 67 runs and 20 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 3.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.78 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.79, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K/9 of 10.06.

The Brewers offense has slashed .251/.320/.417 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 3.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Milwaukee’s hitters have been paced by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, who’ve collectively swatted 32 home runs. Yelich is hitting .309/.372/.533 with 23 home runs, 67 RBIs, 89 runs and 14 stolen bases. Cain is hitting .307/.398/.428 with nine homers, 32 RBIs, 67 runs and 24 steals.

The Brewers have gained 14.3 units and are 53-47 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 43 of those games, compared to 53 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 13.3 units and are 51-45 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 47 of those games, as opposed to 46 which went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in just two of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
  • The Brewers have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
  • Milwaukee fielders have committed seven errors over their last five games, compared to four errors for Cincinnati over its last five.
  • The Brewers have won three of their last four games SU while the Reds have lost six of their last seven.